Damaging Wind in Pennsylvania, July 10, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
225 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1003MB OCCLUDED LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH COLD FRONT SW INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA..AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA THEN TO JUST SOUTH OF WASH
DC THEN EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. 1019 SFC HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND
WITH PRESSURES AROUND 1012 MB OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA. PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER NORTHEAST SUPPORTS EASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
OBSERVED...AND AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH EASTERLY FLOW...LOTS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. SOME BREAKS SHOW UP
ON SAT PICS OVER SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA COUNTY.

BIG WEATHER MAKER IS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT THE MODELS DEEPEN AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG FRONT THROUGH AREA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. AHEAD OF FRONT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER IS EXPECTED. THIS
IS CLASSIC CASE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PA...BUT TIMING OF FRONT
(EARLY MORNING) AND COOL OCEANIC AIR IN PLACE DONT FAVOR SEVERE
WEATHER. SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD DEVELOP WELL WEST OF CWA AND
MAKE IT TO WESTERN ZONES BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR. FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH MOST AREAS BY 18Z TOMORROW. GFS
SHOWS POST FRONTAL DRY SLOT FOR TOMORROW BUT RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
JET MAX REMAINS OVER NORTHWEST AREAS SO WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 12Z ETA.

SATURDAY LOOKING MUCH MORE CLOUDY AS SHORTWAVE OR SECONDARY
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. MODELS ALSO SHOW COLD POOL AND CYCLONIC FLOW
AT 850MB. GFS MOS HAS 30-40 POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST FOR SATURDAY. 12Z
ETA ALSO SHOWS INSTABILITY RW ACROSS MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY LOOKS FAIR.
INVERTED TROUGH ALONG COAST MAY LEAD TO SOME RW/TRW OVER SOUTHEAST
ON MONDAY. HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN FOR MIDWEEK WITH MAYBE ANOTHER
FRONT BY NEXT THURSDAY.

.CTP...NONE.

DIRIENZO

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-101115-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
508 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT...AND A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER
OF THE STATE IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS OR LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AROUND MIDDAY OVER AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF HARRISBURG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PAZ024-025-033-034-110200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
351 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...

BEDFORD...BLAIR...CAMBRIA AND SOMERSET.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA...PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS..LARGE HAIL..AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

DEVOIR