Flood in Pennsylvania, January 3, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
155 AM EST FRI 3 JAN 2003

MAIN SFC LOW MOVG ENE OUT OF WESTERN SMOKIES. DRYING ON WV LOOP
EVIDENT W/MAIN S/W PULLING UP INTO WV ATTM...REG IR CHANNEL SHOWS
RAPIDLY COOLING/EXPANDING COLD CLD TOPS THERE AS WELL. REGIONAL RDR
LOOP SHOWING ASSOCD PRECIP INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY IN WV/SWRN PA.
TIMING IS RIGHT ON SCHD FOR THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS AND LOOKS
TO BE ACCUMULATING AT A RATE OF 1-2 PER HR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM.
WL THEREFORE CONT CURRENT WARNING SCENARIO AS IS (WORDING THRU EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING (2/3AM).

WWE CONF CALL SHOWS ALL OFFICES VERY MUCH IN AGREEMENT W/HPC
GUIDANCE. FURTHER COORD CALLS TO BUF/PIT/BGM. THANKS

ONLY WORRY FOR A FLASE ALARMS WUD BE WARREN CO AND THE FAR WESTERN
ZNS...AS THEY MAY BE TOO FAR N/W TO BE UNDER THE BEST DYNAMICS FOR
AN EXTENDED TIME. OF COURSE...THE SNOW WL PROB BE FLUFFIER
THERE...AS TEMPS STAY COLDER THERE THRU THE EVENT...AND THE
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS OF THE HIGHER ALLEGHENY PLATEAU/LAUREL MTNS SHUD
NOT BE TAKEN LIGHTLY. WL HOLD THE WARNINGS AS IS THERE...WITH
MINIMAL WORDING CHANGES.

SERN COS WL DO THE DANCE OF THE MIXED PRECIP FAIRY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT HEAVY PRECIP DURING MORNING RUSH HR WL PUT DOWN ENUF
SNOW/IP TO MAKE IT ROUGH THERE...TOO. MIDDLE OF THE DAY MAY BE
QUIETER...BUT FZDZ PROBABLY WL BE PRESENT AS LLVL TEMPS STILL SUB-32
BUT LESS HIGH CLOUD TO SEED THE LWR CLDS. THEN...

ANOTHER GOOD BURST OF HVY PRECIP WL COME NEAR THE END OF THE EVENING
RUSH AND LAST THRU 10PM/1AM AS UPR LOW DEEPENS OVHD AND SFC LOW
DEEPENS OFF THE JERSEY COAST. MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIP WL BE IN THE
ERN HALF OF MY AREA...WITH TOTALS OF A FOOT OR MORE FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS LIKE SULLIVAN/COLUMBIA/SCHUYLKILL COS. YET ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT FOR CENTRAL PA. ONLY ODD THING (W.R.T. MOST OF
THE OTHER STORMS THIS SEASON XCPT DEC 5/6) IS THAT THERE IS NO MAJOR
HOLIDAY EXPECTED TODAY OR SATURDAY

XTNDD (READ:ANYTHING PAST TODAY...TONIGHT): WL NOT BE MAKING ANY THE
CHANGES OF NOTE. SCT SHSN NWRN 1/2 OF AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TIME.
MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IS A DEEPENING YET POSITIVELY TILTED TROF
PROGGED TO ZIP THRU MON/TUES TIME FRAME...THEN A BRIEF RESPITE.

.CTP...
PA...
WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 3 AM FOR ALL ZONES BUT PAZ064>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 3 AM FOR PAZ064>066.

DANGELO

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-031215-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
520 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND SOME ICE ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...CREATING SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 18 INCHES
BY MIDNIGHT. WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...EXCEPT LANCASTER...YORK AND ADAMS COUNTIES
(WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED) FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PHLWSWCTP (WWUS41 KCTP) AND
PHLZFPCTP...ZONE FORECAST (FPUS51 KCTP) FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY. SPOTTERS...PLEASE REPORT SNOWFALLS
OF ONE INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER...OR WHEN YOU REACH 6 INCHES OF NEW
SNOWFALL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

DANGELO