High Wind in Oregon, March 21 to 22, 2003

NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 AM PST FRI MAR 21 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A WET PACIFIC FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...AND WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF PROLONGED
PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE LIKELY NEAR THE
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COOLER AIR MASS AND
COOLER SHOWERS WILL SPREAD IN SATURDAY...THEN SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVES INLAND AROUND TUESDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR SHOWS WARM ADVECTION INCREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE FIRST WARM FRONT ON THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PASS
THROUGH EARLY TODAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL NOT LIFT VERY FAST AHEAD OF
THE FIRST WARM FRONT SO WILL CONTINUE A LOW END SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES THIS MORNING. THE SNOW
LEVEL SHOULD RISE CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
SECOND STRONGER WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONTAL SURGE AHEAD WITH THE
NEXT DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND TO INCREASE THE RAIN
LATER IN THE DAY TODAY...BOTH RAIN AND WIND WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PART OF THIS FRONTAL WAVE. A STRONG
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE TOWARD VANCOUVER
ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE TIGHTENING UP
SURFACE GRADIENTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH THE ORIENTATION OF
ISOBARS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST...SO WILL CONTINUE A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE COAST FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE COAST ABOUT 4 AM SATURDAY MORNING
AND RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO EASTERN OREGON BY 10 AM. WINDS
WILL DECREASE ON THE COAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL WATERS INTO SATURDAY..AND
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER SATELLITE DATA SHOWS A PLUME OF 1
INCH TO 1.5 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST WITH A
TROPICAL CONNECTION AND A FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING
WITH THE STRONGER WARM FRONT. THE TIMING AND LENGTH OF ANY BREAK IN
THE PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL DETERMINE IF ANY FLOODING
DEVELOPS.

IN THE COOL AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD IN WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL BELOW THE PASSES. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...AFTER WEAK RIDGING FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODELS
ARE REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH A TROUGH COMING INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A RETURN TO WET WEATHER. WILLSON

AST +++74 PDX +++74 SLE +++74 EUG +++73

.PQR...GALE WARNING...CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE.
      .HIGH WIND WATCH...COAST ZONES TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
      .SNOW ADVISORY...THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTH
        WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES.

ORZ001>013-WAZ019>023-039-040-211430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON
630 AM PST THU MAR 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

A PACIFIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

* GALE WARNING...............SEE FZUS56 KPQR - CWFPQR FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN......FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COUPLE OF PACIFIC FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY PRODUCING GALE FORGE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. HEAVY
RAINS MAY BRING RIVER FLOODING FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

A FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENT..SEE FGUS76 KPQR - ESFPQR FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE FZUS56 KPQR - CWFPQR FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO SKYWARN PROCEDURES.