Flooding in Oregon, January 31, 2003

Name: Flooding in Oregon, January 31, 2003
Start: 2003-01-31T13:00
End: 2003-01-31T23:00
Location: Oregon

January 31, 2003 · NWS PQR · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS PQR wrote it up.

Very heavy rain resulted in flooding along the Northern Oregon coast and parts of the Northern Willamette Valley. Fortunately, river levels were abnormally quite low due to dry conditions during the fall and December, so the resultant flooding was not extensive. The Wilson River near Tillamook crested 2 feet above flood stage. The local Dairy Queen store reported 4 feet of water caused extensive damages, while about 15 homes in low lying areas reported water up to their porches. The Nehalem River near Foss crested 2.5 feet above flood stage, but no damages were reported. The Tualatin River near Dilley and the Pudding river near Aurora crested around a foot above flood stage, with no reported damages. Johnson Creek, in the Portland metropolitan area, crested at 2 feet above flood stage. This is the highest Johnson Creek had risen in years, and although no damages were reported, the rising river prompted the evacuation of approximately 25 nearby houses. Heavy rain resulted in standing water on many streets in the Portland metro area, resulting in some road closures. A small slide resulted in the temporary closure of a ramp leading to the St Johns Bridge.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 8:30 AM PST, 4 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 8:30 AM PST, 4 hours 30 minutes before

NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 AM PST FRI JAN 31 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NW OREGON THIS MORNING WILL VERY SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL MOSEY ACROSS THE CASCADES LATER THIS EVENING.
SNOW WILL REMAIN ABOVE PASS LEVELS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY TUMBLE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SAT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN OREGON SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THEN A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY FOR DRY WEATHER
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THE WET FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE NW CORNER OF OREGON WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...FINALLY REACHING THE CASCADES EARLY
THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ONE WAVE ON THE FRONT MOVED
UP THROUGH EXTREME NW OREGON THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER IS APPARENT
NEAR 35 N 140 W AT 16Z. THIS WILL IMPEDE THE FRONTS SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS...AND KEEP THE FIREHOSE AIMED AT THE NW CORNER OF OREGON
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT IN FAVORED
OROGRAPHIC AREAS HAS RESULTED IN SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND AN URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR PORTLAND/VANCOUVER AND
SURROUNDING AREAS...WITH MORE WARNINGS IMMINENT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING THE FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SOMETIME IN THE EARLY EVENING TIME
FRAME...PROBABLY NOT AHEAD OF THE EVENING PORTLAND AREA COMMUTE.
CURRENT QPF LOOKS OK FOR NOW...THOUGH WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME IN SOUTH PART OF CWA IN COMPARISON WITH
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BAND. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH...BUT WILL
PLUMMET BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE MORNING FREEZING LEVEL AT KUIL
HAD DROPPED TO 5000 FEET NEAR THE FRONT. A CURSORY LOOK AT MODELS
STILL IMPLIES MOISTURE WILL BE IN SHORT SUPPLY ONCE THE SNOW LEVEL
DROPS SATURDAY. WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT NEED FOR SNOW ADVISORY SATURDAY
IN MY SPARE TIME. RAIN TURNS TO SHOWERS TONIGHT...CONTINUING INTO
SUN.

.LONG TERM...STATUS QUO WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT ANALYSIS. NO CHANGES.
STILL HAVE A DECENT SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON MON. WILL KEEP RAIN IN FOR MON...BUT AFTERWARDS...IMPROVEMENT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
...FOR DRY WEATHER TUE THROUGH FRI. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASED
EAST WINDS COME THU AS COLDER AIR SETTLES INTO THE UPPER COLUMBIA
BASIN.          BOHL

AST ++874  PDX ++874  SLE ++874  EUG ++874

.PQR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE.
       A VARIETY OF FLOOD WARNINGS WATCHES AND ADVISORIES ARE IN
  EFFECT

Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 31, 6:30 AM PST, 6 hours 30 minutes before

ORZ001>013-WAZ019>023-039-040-011430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON
630 AM PST FRI JAN 31 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
     ...WILSON RIVER IN TILLAMOOK COUNTY...
     ...NEHALEM RIVER IN CLATSOP AND TILLAMOOK COUNTIES...
          SEE WGUS46 KPQR - PDXFLWPQR FOR DETAILS

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH COASTAL BASINS AND THOSE
BASINS IN SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON. MORE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS THE
HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO SKYWARN PROCEDURES.

FOR THE LATEST LOCAL WEATHER WARNINGS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...
          HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PORTLAND/WARNING/
(URL IS IN LOWERCASE LETTERS).

Event by event

2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flood, Northern Oregon Coast

When: January 31, 1:00 PM PST to 11:00 PM PST
Where: Northern Oregon Coast forecast zone
Reported by: OFFICIAL NWS OBS.

Flood, Greater Portland Metro Area

When: January 31, 1:00 PM PST to 11:00 PM PST
Where: Greater Portland Metro Area forecast zone
Reported by: OFFICIAL NWS OBS.

What these are

Flood: Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Oregon in 2003 Every state in 2003 This day in weather history Warnings in Oregon, January 2003

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5339483, 5339484.