Lightning Strike in Oregon, April 25, 2003

NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 PM PDT FRI APR 25 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ONE MAIN LOW CENTER OFF THE
SOUTH OREGON COAST WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. ANOTHER
LOW CENTER WILL ORGANIZE OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE
MONDAY AND MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY.

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...LOW CENTER OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST HAS ALREADY
SPREAD SHOWERS NORTH TO AROUND SALEM. MODELS STILL SHOW IT TO BE
UNSTABLE THIS EVENING...THEN THE SHOWERS CONSOLIDATE INTO A
DEFORMATION BAND FOR STEADIER PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE LIKE MOS. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING. COULD SEE
SOME DECENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TONIGHT...SAY 2 TO 4 TENTHS.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ARE
WEAKER...WITH THE MAIN LOW REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND THE SYSTEM FROM
TODAY WELL TO THE EAST. SOME HINT AT INSTABILITY...THOUGH THE ONSHORE
FLOW MAY MAKE IT HARD TO BREAK OUT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. WILL ONLY
GO FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
THE LIFTED INDICES AND LAPSE RATES.

WILL JUST GO CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AS THE LOW REDEVELOPS OR
REORGANIZES OFFSHORE AND WE HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS COULD BE
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND...BUT CANNOT GUARANTEE DRY.

THE SECOND OFFSHORE LOW APPROACHES LATE MONDAY FOR AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY. EARLY PART OF THE DAY DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD.

SEAS HAVE DROPPED ON THE NORTH COAST AND AT BUOY 5 SO WILL ONLY HAVE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR IN THE NORTH.
SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 FEET ON THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT...AND
PROXIMITY OF THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST COULD GIVE SOME WIND
TONIGHT. SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE CENTRAL COAST.

.LONG TERM...LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST NEXT
WEEK BUT TRACK AND TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES REMAIN UNCLEAR. THE
LOW OFF THE COAST LATE MONDAY COMES ONSHORE TUESDAY FOR A GOOD ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THEN THE BROAD BRUSH OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
FORECAST. TOLLESON

AST 866554  PDX 855554 SLE 855554 EUG 875554

.PQR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE.
       SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR.

ORZ001>013-WAZ019>023-039-040-261230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON
530 AM PDT FRI APR 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO SKYWARN PROCEDURE