Flood in Oklahoma, March 19 to 20, 2003

Name: Flood in Oklahoma, March 19 to 20, 2003
Start: 2003-03-19T21:00
End: 2003-03-20T07:00
Location: Oklahoma

March 19 to 20, 2003 · NWS TSA · 1 event in 1 county or zone

At 9 pm cst on March 19th Bird Creek near Sperry rose above its flood stage of 21 feet. 5 feet at 3 am cst on May 20th before falling below its flood stage at 7 am cst that same day.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TSA wrote it up.

At 9 pm cst on March 19th Bird Creek near Sperry rose above its flood stage of 21 feet. The river crested at 21.5 feet at 3 am cst on May 20th before falling below its flood stage at 7 am cst that same day. The flooding was worse about 10 miles upstream where water from Skunk Creek flows into Bird Creek. State Highway 20 east of Skiatook was closed for about 6 hours due to the flooding.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 19, 2:50 PM CST, 6 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 19, 2:50 PM CST, 6 hours 10 minutes before

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
250 PM CST WED MAR 19 2003

UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS FALLING NORTH OF THE SHEAR AXIS.
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
AS THE AFTERNOON HEATING BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND LI VALUES
AROUND -2.  THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL WITH WET BULB
ZEROS AROUND 6500 FT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT. SO...FLASH FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME ON SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. WILL GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM COMES OUR WAY.

TUL   46   55   40   61  / 70   60   20   10
FSM   47   62   43   62  / 50   60   20   10
MLC   44   61   42   62  / 60   60   20   10
BVO   44   54   37   59  / 70   60   20   10
FYV   44   57   37   57  / 60   60   20   10
BYV   45   58   37   57  / 70   60   20   10
MIO   44   53   37   58  / 70   60   20   10
F10   45   59   40   61  / 70   60   20   10
HHW   45   61   43   63  / 40   60   20   10

FORECAST ID= 10

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 19, 2:00 PM CST, 7 hours before

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
200 PM CST WED MAR 19 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AREA 1...NEAR I-44 CORRIDOR AND NORTHWEST
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...80

IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
     PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...10
     TIME OF INITIAL EVENT...OCCURING NOW
     PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO / F2 OR GREATER TORNADO...1/0
     PROBABILITY OF GOLFBALL HAIL OR LARGER...2
     PROBABILITY OF 73 MPH WIND OR GREATER...10

DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HELPING TO GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AIR MASS IS NOT VERY UNSTABLE.
THERE MAY BE A LINE OF STORMS PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS AREA...BUT MOST OF THIS AREA
WILL HAVE NON-SEVERE STORMS.

GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCURRENCE
ANYWHERE IN THE DEFINED AREA.

AREA 2...SOUTH AND EAST OF I-44 CORRIDOR

PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...60

IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
     PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...30
     TIME OF INITIAL EVENT...4PM
     PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO / F2 OR GREATER TORNADO...2/0
     PROBABILITY OF GOLFBALL HAIL OR LARGER...10
     PROBABILITY OF 73 MPH WIND OR GREATER...20

GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCURRENCE
ANYWHERE IN THE DEFINED AREA.

DISCUSSION...
IN THIS AREA INSTABLILITY WILL BE GREATER.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-40 WHERE WARMER SURFACE
AIR AND BETTER WIND FIELDS EXIST.  LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT PUSH INTO AREA...A LINE OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.  UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 19, 4:52 PM CST, 4 hours 8 minutes before

OKZ067-192345-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 PM CST WED MAR 19 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR WAGONER COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM CST...

AT 452 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
NORTH OF STONEBLUFF...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF
STONEBLUFF...COWETA AND ONETA WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH
515 PM CST.

SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

Special weather statement, Mar 19, 4:52 PM CST, 4 hours 8 minutes before

OKZ067-192315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 PM CST WED MAR 19 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR WAGONER COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM CST...

AT 452 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
NORTH OF STONEBLUFF...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF
STONEBLUFF...COWETA AND ONETA WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH
515 PM CST.

SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

Special weather statement, Mar 19, 6:36 PM CST, 2 hours 24 minutes before

ARZ010-019-029-OKZ069-072-076-200130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
636 PM CST WED MAR 19 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR WASHINGTON...CRAWFORD...
   SEBASTIAN...ADAIR...SEQUOYAH AND LE FLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM
   CST...

AT 636 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES WEST OF CHRISTIE TO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SPIRO TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUMMERFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL.

A LARGE PORTION OF
WASHINGTON...CRAWFORD...SEBASTIAN...ADAIR...SEQUOYAH AND LE FLORE
COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 730 PM CST.

Special weather statement, Mar 19, 7:27 PM CST, 1 hour 33 minutes before

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-200230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
727 PM CST WED MAR 19 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR CARROLL...BENTON...
   MADISON...WASHINGTON...FRANKLIN...CRAWFORD AND SEBASTIAN COUNTIES
   UNTIL 830 PM CST...

AT 727 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES WEST OF GRAVETTE TO MOUNTAINBURG TO
DAYTON...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. A
LARGE PORTION OF
CARROLL...BENTON...MADISON...WASHINGTON...FRANKLIN...EASTERN
CRAWFORD AND EASTERN SEBASTIAN COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS THROUGH 830 PM CST.

Special weather statement, Mar 19, 8:25 PM CST, 35 minutes before

ARZ001-002-011-200330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
825 PM CST WED MAR 19 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR CARROLL...BENTON AND
   MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CST...

AT 825 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES WEST OF PEA RIDGE TO 4 MILES NORTH OF
WESLEY TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PATRICK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF CARROLL...MADISON AND EASTERN BENTON COUNTIES
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 930 PM CST.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flood, Tulsa

When: March 19, 9:00 PM CST to March 20, 7:00 AM CST
Where: Tulsa forecast zone
Reported by: OFFICIAL NWS OBS.
Coordinates: 36.121, -95.941 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Flood: Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Oklahoma in 2003 Every state in 2003 This day in weather history Warnings in Oklahoma, March 2003

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5346075.