Hail and Damaging Wind in Kentucky, March 19, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 AM EST WED MAR 19 2003

CONCERNS FOCUS ON SEVERE THREAT THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN.
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG TSTM SEGMENTS ON
MEMPHIS AND NASHVILLE RADARS ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO CTRL
KY THIS MORNING AND FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAKENING EXPECTED BEFORE DAYBREAK...ACTIVITY SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY
LATER THIS MORNING AS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES INTO AREA. EVEN SO SEVERE
THREAT MARGINAL GIVEN A LACK OF INSTABILITY.

ETA AND GFS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT. GFS BRINGS IN SOME DRYING TO
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF FA THIS AFTN AND SHIFTS HEAVIER PRECIP INTO
CTRL INDIANA BY THAT TIMEFRAME. MEANWHILE ETA & UKMET ARE A LITTLE
SLOWER. WILL LEAN MORE WITH THE GFS IN TERMS OF TAPERING OFF THE
PRECIP THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND ALLOW FOR SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING THERE. ALTHOUGH MAIN AXIS OF CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH
NORTH OF KY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT APPROACH
AND DYNAMICAL FORCING WEAKENS...GIVEN ANY SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WE
COULD HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRE UP WITH INCREASING
MODEST  INSTABILITY. AT ANY RATE WILL MENTION MAINLY THIS MORNING
WORDING IN THE SOUTH AND BUMP UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL...TIMING MAINLY
THROUGH EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN FA.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP IN FOR THE EVENING
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS WILL STILL BE WARM...DRY
SLOT OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEM TAKES OVER BY EVENING. WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN THE SKY COVER. CURRENT FCST LOWER
50S LOOKS FINE. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING INTO MID OR POSSIBLY UPPER 70S
ON THURSDAY GIVEN SUNSHINE AND AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE.
IN ADDITION STRONG PVA MOVES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN ADVANCE
OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. WILL CONTINUE 50 POPS AND EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY
TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI WILL GO WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AS UPPER TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH WITHOUT A LOT OF ADDITIONAL FORCING AVAILABLE
TO WORK WITH. LOWER THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.
SEASONAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND IN UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.SDF...NONE.

JMB

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-201200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
845 AM EST WED MAR 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA BY MIDDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
REMOVED CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA FROM A SLIGHT
RISK TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUST
OR SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF A
LOUISVILLE TO LEXINGTON LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD THURSDAY...HOWEVER,
SCATTERED STORMS WILL TAP GREATER INSTABILITY RESULTING IN A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. PRIME
TIME FOR ANY DAMAGING WEATHER WOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE
LIKELY ACTIVATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DENMAN