Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, June 5, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

ANOTHER WET NIGHT. ONE OF TONIGHT/S COMPLEXES HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION HEAVY
RAIN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE THE RAIN WILL BE
ARRIVING LATER IN THE FIRST PERIOD... AND WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST WHERE AREAS RECEIVED 3 TO 8+ INCHES OF RAIN
THIS MORNING. BUT WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
DEVELOPING WITH THIS COMPLEX.  THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED THIS AFTERNOON
IN MY NORTH TEXAS ZONES ALLOWING CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB TO 2000-2500
J/KG.  IF THIS DEVELOPING COMPLEX CAN TAP INTO THIS UNSTABLE AIR
THIS EVENING... THEN WE MAY SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS.

RAIN WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING OUT OF THE AREA.  CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE FAR
NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.  DID NOT
MAKE ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST.

THE NEXT FROPA CLEARS THE AREA SUNDAY LEAVING ONLY LINGERING POPS.
MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
INTO TEXAS.  SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK GOOD TUESDAY AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH.  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO THE 90S IN
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.  CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EXTENDED AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL... BUT WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY NEW POPS AT THIS
TIME.

...SPEG.
OKC   60  77  58  79 /  60  20  10  40
HBR   59  77  57  79 /  70  10  20  40
SPS   65  80  59  83 /  60  20  10  40
GAG   54  76  55  74 /  80  10  30  40
PNC   58  76  57  77 /  70  10  10  40
DUA   66  80  61  85 /  50  30   0  30

.OUN...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES OKZ014...OKZ016...
OKZ021>023...OKZ027...OKZ033>041...OKZ044>046...OKZ050.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES TXZ083>090.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
346 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUDNERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN... CENTRAL... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... AND
ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK IS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAVERNE... TO WATONGA...
TO NORMAN... TO LAKE TEXOMA.

TIMING...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM THIS EVENING... AND INTO WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM... WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT LASTING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON... AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES IN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. A STATIONARY FRONT LIES FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR CHILDRESS... TO NEAR
FORT WORTH. ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT... CLEARING SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE ALLOWED THE AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. CAPE VALUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF 2000.

WEAK INSTABILITY WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT TO BE THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.  HOWEVER... IT IS
BECOMING APPARENT THAT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL NO LONGER BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA BY EARLY
EVENING... GIVEN THE GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLES ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS AND
MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... AFFECTING
MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS... ALONG WITH A LESSER THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY JUN 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE ENDING BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... AND OVER
ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND OR NEXT WEEK COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING... SOME OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS COULD EXPERIENCE
FLOODING IF AREAS RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY MORNING.

 MILLER

OKZ004-009-052245-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
532 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ELLIS AND HARPER COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM EASTERN BEAVER COUNTY
TO NEAR LIPSCOMB IN TEXAS AT 532 PM CDT.  THE STORMS WERE MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.  THE STORMS WILL ENTER WESTERN ELLIS AND WESTERN
HARPER COUNTIES BETWEEN 535 PM AND 545 PM.  WINDS MAY EXCEED 60 MPH
WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... AND
DIME-SIZE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

CMS

OKZ005-010-011-015-052315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
551 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR DEWEY...MAJOR...WOODS AND
WOODWARD COUNTIES.

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF
FORT SUPPLY TO 28 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT SUPPLY AT 551 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN DEWEY...MAJOR...WOODS AND WOODWARD COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF ALVA AND WOODWARD...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

 MILLER