Flash Flooding and Hail in Oklahoma, June 1 to 2, 2003

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
943 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2003

DISC...
GIVENS INCLUDE...CWA IN FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY. INCH TOTAL PRECIP A FAIR BET ALL
PLACES WITH MUCH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER POSSIBLE.
H850 MOIST AXIS FROM NORTHERN LA > SE OK AND
CENTRAL OK.   H700 MOIST AXIS DISPLACED NORTH
OVER AR AND NE CORNER OK. CWA AREA SANDWICHED
BETWEEN WESTERN KS MCS AND SW OK / N TX MCS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LIKELY IN EXCESS OF
1.75 BY 12Z.   MOST LOGICAL SCENARIO SEEMS TO
FAVOR CWA WIDE MCS WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP NORTH-
EAST HALF CWA.   (ABOVE ONLY RANKS ONE ON THE
PIZZA ORDERED SCALE).  GW
---------------------------------------------

TUL   64   76   60   79  / 90   60   10   20
FSM   63   77   60   80  / 80   80   10   20
MLC   65   79   61   80  / 90   60   10   20
BVO   61   74   56   77  / 90   60   10   20
FYV   60   72   52   75  / 80   80   10   20
BYV   59   72   51   73  / 80   80   10   20
MKO   64   76   60   80  / 90   60   10   20
MIO   60   73   56   75  / 90   80   10   20
F10   63   78   60   80  / 90   60   10   20
HHW   68   80   61   81  / 80   80   10   20

FORECAST ID= 21

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
720 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WITH OVERNIGHT STORMS...

A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD WESTERN
ARKANSAS WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

OF MORE IMPORTANCE IS A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS NOW ORGANIZING OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES.  THESE STORMS WILL ACCLERATE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO MOVE INTO EASTERN OKAHOMA AFTER
1AM.  WHILE THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE PEAKED BEFORE ARRIVING INTO THE
REGION...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  THE AXIS
OF GREATEST WIND AND RAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR.

WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA BY MORNING WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES LIKELY.
THE RAIN AND STORMS STILL IN PROGRESS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS AT SUNRISE.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ054-059-064>065-020632-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
732 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#458 UNTIL 200 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

OKFUSKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CREEK                 OSAGE                 PAWNEE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BRISTOW...OKEMAH...PAWHUSKA AND PAWNEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR
THE LATEST ON THIS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER
INFORMATION...INCLUDING RELATED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.

OKZ054-059-064>065-020700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
955 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 458 CONTINUES UNTIL 200 AM CDT
MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING OKLAHOMA COUNTIES...

OKFUSKEE...CREEK...OSAGE AND PAWNEE.

AT LATE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  THIS AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO ACCLERATE
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN ONE AND 2AM.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE STORMS.

IN ADDITION...NEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERHEAD IN THE WATCH
AREA PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE STORMS FROM THE WEST.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR
THE LATEST ON THIS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER
INFORMATION...INCLUDING RELATED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.