Drought in New Mexico, June 1 to 30, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
840 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2003

WILL LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED CATEGORY (10 OR 20 PERCENT) OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WEST BUT ALLOW ALL NIGHT EVEN IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL KEEP OR RAISE TO SCATTERED POPS IN THE EAST WHERE MAIN
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE...MAINLY IN ERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...
ALTHOUGH OVER TREND IS DOWNWARD. EXCEPTION TO DOWNWARD TREND IS OVER
ERN LINCOLN AND SW CHAVES COUNTIES WHERE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SLIGHTLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. WENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
MANY OF THE ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT INSTEAD OF PARTLY CLOUDY. 40

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAIN FOCUS...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.

MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SW WITH -9 TO -11C H5
TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD. COLD FRONT THAT SLIPPED INTO AREA LAST NIGHT
HAS INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EAST. ALTHOUGH HEATING IS
NOT AS INTENSE AS YESTERDAY...OVERALL INSTABILITY IS GREATER THUS
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE HAS INITIATED AND SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT
MOST AREAS. GOES DERIVED SOUNDING FIELDS INDICATING CAPES OF
2-3 KJ/KG. INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CTNRL MTN
CHAIN AND ERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH PLAINS ARE QUIET AT THIS TIME...VSBL
SAT SHOWS CU FIELD IN AREA OF RELATIVELY BEST HEATING EAST OF KROW.
WITH LIGHT STEERING WINDS AND AMPLE MOISTURE...SOME AREAS COULD SEE
ENOUGH RAIN/RUNOFF FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. SUSPECT THE SANGRES ARE
BEST CANDIDATES SINCE THERE HAVE HAVE TSTMS THERE ALMOST EVERY DAY
FOR A WEEK. DO NOT THINK THREAT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A WATCH...BUT
THIS COULD CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PATTERN OF FRONTS BACKING
AGAINST THE CNTRL MTN CHAIN AND BRINGING IN LOW LVL MSTR CONTINUES.
BY MIDWEEK...NW FLOW INCREASES AS WILL INDIVIDUAL STORM MOVEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PROBLEMATIC IN THE EAST DUE TO TIMING OF SERIES OF
FRONTS TO IMPACT AREA...POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS AND DEGREE
OF UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS GENERATED. HAVE TRIED TO VARY NORTHEAST
LOCATIONS THE MOST FROM DAY TO DAY TO REFLECT UP/DOWN SLOPE
OSCILLATION. AT THIS JUNCTURE...12Z GFS SHOWS FRONTS REACHING CWFA
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT
ON THURSDAY. IN GENERAL...WEST IS ONLY SLGTLY INFLUENCED...BUT AS
ALWAYS POSSIBLE INCURSION OF AIRMASS THROUGH CNTRL MTN CHAIN
CANYONS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. AS MENTIONED BY PRVS FCSTR...
SMALL THREAT OF EAST CANYON WINDS TNGT...BUT NOT LIKELY AS WINDS
OVER PLAINS BEGIN TO PICK UP A SRLY COMPONENT. HWVR...CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS LATER THIS EVENING COULD STILL GENERATE A WWD PUSH THROUGH
THE CANYONS.

.ABQ...NONE.

NMZ001>021-026-011200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1030 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND ALONG
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
FROM STORMS THAT FORM NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. IN ADDITION...SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS FUELED BY
ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF ACROSS PARTS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE WILDFIRES HAVE RECENTLY
OCCURRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS MAY MATERIALIZE FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR ANY
UPDATES TO THIS POTENTIALITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

KD