Damaging Wind in Oklahoma, July 28, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
855 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2003

CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA HAS DIED OUT WITH LOSS OF STRONG
SURFACE HEATING. SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... AND DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH. WILL
KEEP CHC CATEGORY OF PCPN IN THE NORTHWEST... REDUCING POPS TO SLGT
CHCS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. REMOVED POPS FROM THE
SOUTH SINCE THAT ACTIVITY WAS DRIVEN BY STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND DEWPOINTS... OTHERWISE REMAINDER
OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.

FCSTID = 32

155 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2003

SFC COLD FRONT HAS EASED SWD INTO FAR NW SECTIONS OF THE OUN CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON..BUT SWD PROGRESS IS VERY SLOW. CURRENT SAT
LOOPS AND KTLX RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED WITHIN THE VERY HOT THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM WCENT/SW OK TO JUST SW OF OKC. FIRST PERIOD POPS WILL BE
A LAST MINUTE DECISION BEFORE FORECAST IS SENT..BUT PRIND ARE THAT
POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD AND COVERAGE EXPANDED SWD FOR
THIS EVENING.  SFC T/TD SPREADS AOA 40F ALSO SUGGEST A STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFT/EVE.  CHANCES FOR TSTORMS WILL CONT INVOF
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY..AND WITH SECONDARY SURGE PROGGED TO
ARRIVE TUE NITE/WED..SO WILL LEAVE THE GENERAL THEME OF GOING
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH INTACT FOR THESE TIME PERIODS. CCF LOW FOR OKC
TUE NITE REFLECTS ENE WIND OFF URBAN HEAT ISLAND..MUCH OF ERN/NRN
SECTIONS OF METRO SHUD DROP BELOW 70F.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE PRECIP CHANCES STAY A BIT HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THE
FORECAST PERHAPS INTO THURS/FRI WITH WEAK WAA PATTERN PROGGED WHILE
BOUNDARY REMNANTS MOVE/REDEVELOP BACK NWD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THIS ATTM..SO WILL STAY WITH A DRY AND WARMING FORECAST DAYS 4-7 FOR
THIS ISSUANCE.
 MILLER

OKC   74   96   72   91  / 20   20   30   30
HBR   74   98   69   93  / 25   20   20   20
SPS   77  101   71   97  / 10   20   20   20
GAG   66   90   62   90  / 20   20   20   30
PNC   74   92   68   90  / 30   30   30   30
DUA   75  100   71   97  / 10   20   20   20

.OKC...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-291200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
740 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...STRONG
WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
DISSIPATED BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
ELSEWHERE... A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL SAG
SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA ALONG AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT. WEAK WINDS ALOFT ARE
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED OR LONG LIVED SEVERE ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...DUE TO LARGE AIR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT SPREADS...SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45
MPH...MAINLY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY JUL 29.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...15 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS EAST TO WEST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE MOVE SOUTH AGAIN LATE TUESDAY...
SPREADING THE CHANCES OF RAIN FURTHER SOUTH.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST...SO THE FIRE
DANGER WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH DURING THE WORK WEEK.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY.

CJS