Winter Storm in Oklahoma, February 24, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 PM CST MON FEB 24 2003

TWO AREAS OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM.  FIRST AREA IS
SLEET AND SNOW THAT DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING AND HAS
MOVED NORTHEAST INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  EXPECT
UPGLIDE TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EAST THIS EVENING WITH
MOST OF SN/IP COMING TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT.  WILL RECONFIGURE
ADVISORY AREA TO ADD AREAS IN AND AROUND ADA AND HOLDENVILLE.
THE AMOUNT OF SLEET MIXED IN SHOULD HOLD DOWN SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT SOME AREAS MAY PICK UP TO TWO INCHES.

FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AROUND 7H IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A FEW BANDS
OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

WILL LIKELY SEE BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR TUESDAY INTO PARTS
OF TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS
TO AFFECT THE AREA.  WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF AREA WITH MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD...A MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN SOUTH.
WILL GO AHEAD AND LINGER CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  (THU-MON)

MODELS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN STATES THIS WEEK.  BY EARLIER
THURSDAY MORNING...FIRST SYSTEM SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST WITH
ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY.  AS WITH
MOST WINTER SYSTEMS...PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE.
FOR THURSDAY WILL LIMIT POPS TO LATE IN THE DAY AND MAINLY
OUT WEST THEN INCREASE POPS ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
WILL LIKELY GO WITH FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP NORTHERN HALF
AND RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN BRING ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN HIGH SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY AND THIS LOOKS LOGICAL WITH UPPER FLOW.  NOT SURE WHAT
TO DO WITH NEXT WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST.  THIS SYSTEM MAY GET PUSHED
TO THE SOUTH AS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  FOR NOW WILL
LIKELY GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IF MORE SNOW ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY.

FCSTID =SIX

OKC  08 26 24 31 /  40 10 40 70
HBR  09 29 26 31 /  30 10 40 70
SPS  16 32 27 36 /  50 10 40 60
GAG  03 25 22 27 /  20 10 50 70
PNC  02 20 18 24 /  30 10 50 70
DUA  18 32 27 35 /  80 10 40 50

.OUN...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR EASTERN COUNTIES OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-251300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CST MON FEB 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST TUESDAY FEB 25...
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REFER TO THE
LATEST ADVISORY FOR MORE INFORMATION. EXTREME COLD WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE TEENS IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO THE 20S IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WIND CHILLS WILL
BE BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA RANGING UP TO THE TEENS IN
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR WILL BE LIFE THREATENING FOR ANYONE WHO IS EXPOSED TO IT FOR
LONG PERIODS WITHOUT PROPER PROTECTION.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR LESS THAN AN INCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN STORM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...ANY OF
WHICH COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF WINTER-TYPE PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES AT THIS TIME APPEARING TO BE AROUND WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.