Heavy Snow in Oklahoma, December 12 to 13, 2003

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
423 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2003

LOTS TO TALK ABOUT...WILL TRY TO BE AS BRIEF AS POSSIBLE. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...A COMPLEX FIRST PERIOD FORECAST. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES
ROUGHLY ALONG I-44 CORRIDOR AS PRESENT TIME...SEPARATING TEMPS IN
MID 40S TO NEAR 50 SOUTH AND EAST FROM LOW-MID 30S NORTH. DEW POINTS
TO THE SOUTH OF WARM FRONT HAVE SURGED INTO UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S AS
EARLIER MESOETA SUGGESTED ALL ALONG. LARGE SHIELD OF WAA PRECIP NOW
SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL OK WILL CONTINUE MAKING ITS WAY EAST AND
SHOULD COVER A GOOD DEAL OF FORECAST AREA IN A FEW HOURS. SO...NOT
MUCH DOUBT THAT IT WILL PRECIPITATE...BUT IN WHAT FORM AND WHERE?

HEALTHY WARM LAYER ALOFT SEEN ON SPECIAL 18Z RAOBS AND MANY STATIONS
IN WESTERN OK REPORTING FZRA...HOWEVER BOTH ENID AND PONCA CITY
REPORTING SN AT 3 PM. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FZRA
NORTH OF I-44 TO START THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW.  UPPER VORT MAX AND
ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT STILL WELL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...
APPEARS GFS HAD BEST HANDLE INITIALLY. UPPER LOW TRACK WILL BE
CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT STILL FEEL THAT
OSAGE...WESTERN PAWNEE AND NRN WASHINGTON OK STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF
6-8 ACCUMS BEFORE ITS ALL OVER. BASED ON THIS WARNING WILL BE LEFT
AS IS FOR TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE MUCH MORE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME.

LOOKS AS THOUGH WET BULB EFFECT ALONE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ANY WINTER PRECIP EARLY TONIGHT IN WATCH/ADVISORY AREAS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR GIVEN EXPECTED NERLY TRACK
OF UPPER LOW WILL BRING DRY SLOT OVER SE OK...WEST CENTRAL ARK AND
MAYBE EVEN FAR NW ARK LATE TONIGHT. FEELING IS THAT WE CAN PULL BACK
ON WATCH ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE...INCLUDING FT. SMITH AREA. WILL
KEEP AN ADVISORY GOING ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF WARNING TONIGHT
AND WILL EXTEND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN 4 COUNTIES IN ARK THRU SAT
MORNING AS WRAP AROUND AND DEFORMATION ZONE MAY SQUEEZE OUT ENOUGH
SNOW.

SYSTEM WILL EXIT SAT AFTERNOON WITH A QUIET COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO LATER FORECAST PERIODS.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    27   35   22   40 / 100   50   10    0
FSM    33   36   26   44 / 100   60   10    0
MLC    33   38   27   50 / 100   20   10    0
BVO    25   34   18   37 / 100   50   10    0
FYV    29   32   18   37 / 100   70   10    0
BYV    29   30   18   35 / 100   80   10    0
MKO    32   37   25   45 / 100   50   10    0
MIO    26   32   18   36 / 100   60   10    0
F10    30   37   25   47 / 100   20   10    0
HHW    36   39   29   52 / 100   20   10    0

FORECAST ID= 14

.TSA...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES ARZ001>002...
ARZ010>011.

OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES OKZ054>061...OKZ064.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES OKZ062>063...
OKZ065>069.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1125 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2003

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131200-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1125 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

AREAS OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING DRIZZLE AND RAIN WERE DEVELOPING AT
MID DAY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  THIS PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TOWARD EVENING.  CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE ORGANIZING
STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY SNOW INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH
A MIX OF ICE AND SNOW INTO OTHER ARES OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  SEE THE WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE /OKCWSWTUL/ FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS HEAVY SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE IS
EXPECTED...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 4 INCHES.
INTERESTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER VIGOROUS WINTER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE AREA ANOTHER CHANCE OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION.