Hail in Ohio, March 20, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
235 PM EST THU MAR 20 2003

A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  AT THIS TIME CONVECTION FIRING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA
ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA.
MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED AFTER
SUNSET...HOWEVER STRONG DYNAMICS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. I WILL KEEP HIGH LIKELY
POPS OVER THE AREA ALL NIGHT DESPITE A LIKELY BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
THIS EVENING.

FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OHIO FRIDAY DURING THE DAY.  PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD IN THE MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD DECREASE TO
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST.
850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -2 TO -4 OVER THE AREA AFTER 00Z.  A THREAT
DOES EXIST FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.  THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON
ON SATURDAY.  SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO FORM
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER AIR SYSTEM.  THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF
SOME SNOW SHOWERS.  I WILL KEEP HIGH CHC POPS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  I MADE NO
MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED.

I WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.  I WILL LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPS FOR FRIDAY A FEW DEGREES.  WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THE
TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO STAY A FEW DEGREES LOWER.

.CLE...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.

GARNET

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-201200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
455 AM EST THU MAR 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO
AND A PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
THOUGH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS OF OHIO...WEST OF ABOUT A TOLEDO MANSFIELD LINE.  THE MAIN
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE FOR LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.