Flash Flood and Hail in North Dakota, June 22, 2003

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
305 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE
EARLY PERIODS. MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH WILL
LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ETA.

QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER TEMPS PUSHING MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE FA.
THIS RIGHT AROUND CONVECTIVE TEMP FOR MOST AREAS. SFC BOUNDARY STILL
LYING STATIONARY ACROSS THE FA...ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN
SAT. HOWEVER LOW/MID LEVEL QUASISTATIONARY WARM FRONT RIGHT ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ENTIRE FA REMAINS
IN SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA AND STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA. THIS AREA IN FAVORED INSTABILITY AXIS AND POOLING
MOISTURE (DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S). 500 MB WIND SPEEDS ALSO
REMAIN IN THE 50KT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND
WILL HELP AID STORM DEVELOPMENT. UPPER JET/WEAK WAVES ALSO PUNCHING
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER FLOW STILL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
WILL ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT FIRE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA TO DRIFT NNE.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION IN GRIDS.

HARD TO ELIMINATE ANY PCPN CHANCE THROUGHOUT THE EARLY PERIODS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PCPN
BUT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT...WILL JUST
BROADBRUSH AND MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR NOW. BEST THUNDER
CHANCES SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WITH THE KDVL REGION POSSIBLY THE ONLY
REGION TO EITHER SEE LITTLE OR NO PCPN OR ONLY SHOWERS. MADE FEW
CHANGES TO GRIDS OTHERWISE. WILL KEEP DISCUSSION SHORT AS TORNADO
WATCH JUST ISSUED.

MFR SHOWS RRV IN SPLIT BETWEEN NORTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH FEATURED IN NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.  THIS IS THE PRELUDE TO A LONG DRY SPELL WITH FAIR WEATHER
AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES UNTIL SUNDAY...WHEN UPPER AIR BRINGS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BACK TO THE RRV AND ASSOCIATED CHANCE OF THUNDER
AND RAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

.FGF...NONE.

GODON/LUKES

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-221430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
625 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AFTER 1 PM LIFTING NORTHEAST
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO
BE OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

VOELKER