Hail in North Dakota, June 16, 2003

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
155 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003.

...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CONVECTIVE POP THREAT IN
   SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY TONIGHT...

.CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW...
18Z MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM JUST EAST
OF HALLOCK MN TO NORTH CENTRAL SD WHILE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS EVIDENT FROM ALBERTA PROVINCE TO NORTH CENTRAL ND. BEST MOISTURE
FLUX CONVERGENCE RE-ALIGNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWFA ATTM.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED 250MB JET STREAK OVER MANITOBA
PROVINCE WITH SECOND SHOT OF JET ENERGY PUNCHING EAST FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA.

.TONIGHT...
WILL LINGER CONVECTION THREAT FROM SOUTHEAST ND TO WEST CENTRAL MN
AS WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY COUPLES WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY. FAVORABLE RRQ I.E DIRECT TRANSVERSE CIRCULATION OF
MANITOBA JET STREAK SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
DEGREE OF INSOLATION/SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL DICTATE
WHETHER ENOUGH DESTABLIZATION WILL OCCUR FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
HAILERS TO FIRE.

.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...
CURRENT JET MAX OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SHOULD PUNCH SOUTHEAST INTO
MB PROVINCE. DIGGING NATURE OF JET WILL FINALLY BE THE MECHANISM
NEEDED TO TO KICK BOUNDARY/CONVECTIVE FOCUS INTO SOUTHERN MN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN WAKE OF FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE UP
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ASSOCIATED 850-500MB
Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTANT DEEP
LAYERED DRY PROFILE OF COLUMN. SLIGHT 850MB COOLING/THICKNESS
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SUGGESTS COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS SHOULD
BE WEDNESDAY. DRY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP.

.EXTENDED(FRI-MON)...
500MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND
BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW BACK TO THE REGION. GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG
THE EXTENDED MODELS ON MOVING A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES RIDING THE FLOW. 00Z
OPERATIONAL GFS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN REMAINDER OF ENSEMBLE RUNS
ON SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO AREA THIS WEEKEND...LIKELY DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF
OPEN...SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...THUNDER CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR WEEKEND. SYSTEM MOVES EAST BY
MONDAY...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.FGF...NONE.
BERG/DONAVON

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-161345-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
539 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2003

...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH MID
MORNING. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND  PRODUCE ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP AFTER 3 PM ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A DEVILS LAKE TO HALLOCK LINE...AND MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...THOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL PERSIST INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TODAY...AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BEMIDJI
TO BRECKENRIDGE LINE. BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE WELL INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF (ALL LOWER CASE)

GUST