Flash Flood and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, June 8, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

A MUCH DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND WILL BRING SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THIS WEEK.
DRY AIR ADVECITNG IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL HELP TO BREAK UP
THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONTINUED DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET ONCE HEATING IS
LOST. A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT AND REACH THE COAST MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST AND SETTLE OVER THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS COMBIGNED WITH DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SUNNY SKIES
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND NO MENTION OF RAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL STALL ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER WEDNESDAY AND WE SHOULD REAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR AS THE FRONT GOES STATIONARY. AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WED SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS WED AFTN. HIGHS WED REAMIN VERY WARM
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS LEND TO A CONTINUED FORECAST FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR OF WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGHER POPS IN
THE NORTHERN ZONES COULD BE JUSTIFIED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOCATION. BUT WILL JUST BLANKET 30 POPS OVER ENTIRE CWA. A CHANCE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD EXIST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WARM MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AROUND EACH DAY.

.RAH...NONE.

ORROCK

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-091000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
542 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

NCZ021-022-038-039-090100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD THE PIEDMONT TRIAD FROM THE
FOOTHILLS...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WILKES AND SURRY COUNTIES FROM
ELKIN AND DOBSON TO WILKESBORO AT 755 PM... ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
AT 25 MPH AND INTO THE WINSTON-SALEM AND LEXINGTON AREAS BETWEEN
815 PM AND 845 PM. FREQUENT LIGHTNING... GUSTY WIND TO 40 MPH...
AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

EVERYONE FROM WILKESBORO TO DOBSON EAST INTO THE WINSTON-SALEM
AND LEXINGTON AREAS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THESE
STORMS PASS. SEEK SHELTER QUICKLY AT THE FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER.
DUE TO THE RELATIVE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS...
SOME FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE VERY CAREFUL.

BADGETT