Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, June 8, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
230 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

SHORT RANGE...

WE HAVE SCTD TSRA ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTN...AS WELL
AS CELLS POPPING JUST EAST OF OUR PIEDMONT COUNTIES...AS SFC
TROFINESS...AND THETA RIDGING...COMBINED WITH MOIST LOW LVLS MAKE
ATMOS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

TNT...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION...THEN APPROACH OF FNT TOWARD THE WRN FA THIS
EVENING AS WELL. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE CLOSER TO UPPER ENERGY IN SE
WV...ALTHOUGH PCPN SHOULD BE SCTD IN NATURE...AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT...AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND OUT OF
THE FA BY 10Z.

MON-TUE NIGHT...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK GENERALLY DRY...AND SEASONAL...AS FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL. NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US MID WEEK...MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF TSRA TO THE WEST TUES NIGHT. ETA SHOWING A MUCH STRONG SFC
LOW OVER THE GRTLKS THAN GFS...ABOUT 7 MB DEEPER BY 12Z WED. GFS IS
FASTER IN BRINGING LIFT IN HOWEVER...THAN ETA. ATTM...WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO SE WV LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH MOS...AND
FORECASTED THICKNESSES...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTEMENTS TO MAX AND MINS
THRU TUE NIGHT.

LONG RANGE (WED-SUN)...

ALTHOUGH THE WX PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. IS CHANGING TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW...A FRONT IS GOING TO MOVE INTO THE VICINITY BY WED...KEEPING
THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND. IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AS
WE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT OCCURRING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT REMAINS IN
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...SO A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA EVERYDAY...WITH
THREAT FOR MCS/S.

FCSTID =    14/05
ROA   62  85  59  85 /  40  10   0  10
LYH   62  85  56  84 /  40  10  10  10
DAN   63  86  60  86 /  40  10  10  10
BLF   58  77  55  79 /  40  10   0  10
LWB   55  76  50  77 /  40  10   0  10
BCB   59  80  54  81 /  30  10   0  10
TNB   57  77  55  78 /  30  10   0  10

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AMS/WHP

NCZ001>006-019-020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-081245-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
653 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

06

NCZ001-002-018-019-VAZ012-015-016-082330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
629 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE DEVELOPING IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
VIRGINIA.  AT 6:30 PM...THESE STORMS WERE FROM JUST NORTHWEST OF
GALAX VIRGINIA...TO NEAR BLOWING ROCK NORTH CAROLINA.  THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF DUMPING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS
THAN AN HOURS TIME.  THIS MAY RESULT IN RAPID RISES ALONG SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS.  MUD AND DEBRIS MAY ALSO BE WASHED ONTO ROADWAYS.

SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE EAST.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

11

NCZ001-002-018-019-VAZ012-015-016-082330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
629 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE DEVELOPING IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
VIRGINIA.  AT 6:30 PM...THESE STORMS WERE FROM JUST NORTHWEST OF
GALAX VIRGINIA...TO NEAR BLOWING ROCK NORTH CAROLINA.  THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF DUMPING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS
THAN AN HOURS TIME.  THIS MAY RESULT IN RAPID RISES ALONG SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS.  MUD AND DEBRIS MAY ALSO BE WASHED ONTO ROADWAYS.

SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE EAST.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

11