Damaging Wind in North Carolina, June 16, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2003

SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO ERODE IN THE
NC PIEDMONT TODAY...KEEPING THE AREA MORE STABLE THAN SC/GA AND THE
WRN MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AREAS
AND THIS SHOULD STEADILY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH THE STALLING SFC BOUNDARY REMAINING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. PER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...WILL
MAINTAIN THE EXISTING FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE IT TO THE MID SHIFT TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR
EXTENSION INTO TUESDAY. ISOLATED FLOODING PROBLEMS COULD DEVELOP
OUTSIDE THE WATCH AREA FARTHER SW...BUT DEGREE OF TRAINING AWAY FROM
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY HARD TO ASSESS AND IS PROBABLY NOT
WORTH A WATCH AT PRESENT.

SFC BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW WITH THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS BACK NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL GENERALLY
GO SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ON MAXES AND KEEP A SMALL DIURNAL
TEMP RANGE. DEEPER MOISTURE SHOWS UP IN TIME HEIGHTS AGAIN WED WITH
DEEP SW FLOW BUT LESS TRIGGERING AROUND. WILL OPT FOR SOLID CHC POPS
WED AFTN.

STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THU WITH HIGHEST
EXTENDED RANGE POPS FEATURED FOR THU NIGHT. MODEL DISCREPANCIES THEN
BEGIN TO SHOW UP. THE GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST THREE
RUNS WITH HANGING UP THE FRONT ACROSS THE SRN EDGE OF AREA WITH
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE BY SAT. GFS ALSO FEATURES TROUGH AXIS TO THE
WEST OVER THE MS VALLEY. WILL LEAN TOWARD ECM SOLUTION OF PLAINS
RIDGING AND MUCH LATER RETURN OF A WEAKER FRONT FOR LATE WEEKEND AND
RETURN TO DIURNAL AFTN CONVECTION.

FCSTID =   33
GSP   69  82  69  82 /  70  60  60  50
AND   69  84  69  83 /  60  60  60  50
CLT   69  81  69  82 /  70  70  70  50
HKY   67  77  67  79 /  80  70  70  50
AVL   65  77  64  78 /  70  70  70  50

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES NCZ033>037...NCZ048>050...
NCZ053>057...NCZ065>072...NCZ082.
SC...NONE.

HG

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-161200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
622 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
ALONG AND A LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO
REFORM OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ON TUESDAY THE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...WITH
A BETTER CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL AS TO MONITOR STREAM LEVELS AND REPORT
RAINFALL TOTALS.

MCAVOY

NCZ053-065-161900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
204 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2003

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS BUNCOMBE AND HENDERSON COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA.

BUNCOMBE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS REPORTED MARBLE SIZED
HAIL WITH THE STORMS IN THE AREA.  STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ALSO CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS AS
THEY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

DICARLO