Damaging Wind in North Carolina, July 5, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1109 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2003

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS ABUNDANT STRATUS SLOWLY BURNING
OFF ACROSS THE SOYTHERN TIER ZONES IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING THE
EXTREME NORTH...AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE
EXTREME WESTERN UPSTATE. UPSTREAM...IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT SURGE IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW A
DECENT BAND OF CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA...HELPED ALONG BY A PERSISTENT VORT LOBE THAT HAS
REMAINED OVER THE REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS KEEP THE
SOUTHEAST ACTIVE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE FOR LATE
AFTERNOON...AS A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FOR EARLY
EVENING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
SHOWED THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW BASICALLY TWO AIRMASSES OVER THE CWFA...WITH
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE AT FFC...AND MORE OF A SUMMERTIME
PATTERN OF  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS AT GSO.
CAP THAT WAS PREVALENT ON SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY GSO AND RNK ON
FRIDAY...IS NOTICEABLY ABSENT THIS MORNING. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CAPES AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG IN THE NORTH AND EAST LATER TODAY
IF THINGS CAN GET GOING...BUT THOSE PARTS OF THE CWFA WILL BE THE
ONES WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT OF UPPER FORCING FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AND THEY WILL BE THE WARMEST...WITH AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
FULL SUN BEFORE THE CU FIELD DEVELOPS. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO
50S FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN...AND FAR WESTERN ZONES...TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ZONES.

GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF STRATUS REMAINING ON SATELLITE...CU FIELD SHOULD
BE SIGNIFICANT THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE NORTH. THE PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT IN THE SUNNY NORTH...THERE ARE ONE
OR TWO SPOTS RUNNING ACTUALLY ABOVE WHERE THEY SHOULD BE. WE DID
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE UPDATE...WITH LOWER 90S NOW FOR THE
NORTH...MID 80S FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES...AND GENERAL RANGES
OF 84 TO 89 MOST OTHER ZONES.

FCSTID =   44
GSP   86  69  88  70 /  40  30  40  40
AND   88  69  87  70 /  40  40  40  40
CLT   89  70  88  70 /  30  20  40  40
HKY   90  69  87  68 /  30  20  40  40
AVL   85  64  82  64 /  40  30  50  50

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

BURRUS

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-051145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
542 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORMS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...PLEASE SEE LASTEST SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT (SPSGSP) FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

NED