Damaging Wind in North Carolina, July 29, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
420 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

SPC HAS BOXED MOST OF THE CWA E OF THE MTNS AS AN MCV MOVES IN FROM
NRN GA. AT THE SFC...WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM GSP TO CLT.
SCT STRONG CONVECTION IS FIRING ON THE BNDRY...WITH OTHER CONVECTION
FIRING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COMBINATION OF GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENCE...SBCAPES AOA 3000 AND THE SHORT WAVE WL RESULT IN GOOD
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE E OF THE MTNS THE REST OF THE AFTN AND THIS
EVENING.

ASIDE FROM SEVERE THREAT...WEAK ELY FLOW N OF THE FRONT...COUPLED
WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WLY FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS HIGH PW/S AND HIGH WBZ/S
WL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
ATTM A WATCH IS NOT WARRANTED...BUT WL MONITOR AS A SHORT TERM WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING.

NOT MUCH FORCING ON WED...THOUGH THE FRONT WL REMAIN IN THE AREA.
BEST LLVL CONVERGENCE ON THE MODELS DEVELOPS OVER THE SW MTNS. LAYER
DRIES OUT QUITE A BIT AS WELL. THEREFORE...WL HAVE ONLY SLGT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FAR NE ZONES...INCREASING TO AROUND 50 PERCENT INTO THE
SW MTNS. THERE WL BE LGT UPSLOPE FLOW AGAIN TMRW NGHT...AND THERE
MAY ONCE AGAIN BE A PROBLEM W/STATIONARY CELLS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WED NGHT.

LONG WAVE SHARPENS A LITTLE ON THU W/DEEP AND MOIST SWLY FLOW. ETA
HAS GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE AS WELL. WL GO W/A 50 POP ALL
ZONES. DEEPER FRONTAL BNDRY MOVES ACROSS THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY. LOOKS
LIKE A CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN.

FCSTID =   14
GSP   70  86  70  88 /  60  30  30  50
AND   71  87  71  89 /  50  40  40  50
CLT   70  84  71  89 /  60  30  30  50
HKY   68  82  69  86 /  60  20  30  50
AVL   66  81  67  83 /  30  30  30  50

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

MCAVOY

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-291100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
458 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATT HIS TIME.

RB

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-300000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
108 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON. A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY HAS RESULTED IN A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 70 MPH.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WITH A WEAK WIND FLOW ALOFT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY...AND COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION. STANDING WATER ON ROADS...AND IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS LIKELY WHEREVER THUNDERSTORMS LINGER FOR LONG
PERIODS. STREAMS...CREEKS AND RIVERS COULD SEE QUICK RISES ACROSS
THE REGION...ENHANCING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

BURRUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
254 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

237 PM     MATTHEWS                  NC   WIND DAMAGE
07/29/03   MECKLENBURG                    SPOTTER REPORTED TREE
                                          DOWN ON CAR ON
                                          INDEPENDENCE BLVD NEAR
                                          MATTHEWS. 0.7 OF RAIN IN
                                          TEN MINUTES. TRASH CANS
                                          WASHING DOWN STREET.

LAMB

NCZ034-035-054>056-066>070-SCZ004>008-010-292045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
350 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING OFF OF THE BLUE RIDGE...

AT 344 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS LINE
OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE I-85 AND
I-77 CORRIDORS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE PIEDMONT...AND THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF INCREASING TO SEVERE LEVELS. WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL
9 PM.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THESE STORMS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

236 PM     1 W MATTHEWS              NC   WIND DAMAGE
07/29/03   MECKLENBURG                    ***INJURED 1, DEAD 3***
                                          LARGE TREE DOWN ON
                                          VEHICLE. OCCURRED ON
                                          MATTHEWS TOWNSHIP
                                          PARKWAY. REPORTED BY
                                          MECKLENBURG COUNTY
                                          COMMUNICATIONS CENTER.

MOORE

NCZ065-292115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
438 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

...HENDERSON COUNTY HAS BEEN CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 812...

AT 438 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS HAD MOVED EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. WHILE A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS HENDERSON COUNTY
THIS EVENING...NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE
WATCH AREA.

GERAPETRITIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
441 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

434 PM     VALDESE                   NC   .75 INCH HAIL
07/29/03   BURKE                          HAM REPORTED DIME SIZED
                                          HAIL.

441 PM     3 E BETHLEHEM             NC   WIND DAMAGE
07/29/03   ALEXANDER                      SPOTTER REPORTED 4-5
                                          LIMBS BLOWING OFF TREES
                                          AND PEA SIZE HAIL.

LAMB