Hail and Damaging Wind in North Carolina, July 22, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1120 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

WILL ISSUE LATE MORNING UPDATE TO CLEAN UP WORDING... BUT FORECAST
FOR THE REST OF TODAY IS GOING TO REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.
LIKELY AND HIGH CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE.  THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING WESTERN TIP OF OUR CWA NOW.  MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED REGION OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPWARD MOTION
WILL AFFECT AREA... CERTAINLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.  LATEST LAPS AND
MSAS INDICATE MOST UNSTABLE AIR IS ACTUALLY JUST TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. EARLIER RUC AND 12Z ETA FORECAST DOWNWARD MOTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DURING AFTERNOON... SO CURRENT STRONG CONVECTION JUST TO
OUR WEST WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE... AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM.

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

LGL

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-221200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
607 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS...WITH
DAMAGING WIND THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED DURING THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT...AND
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
TONIGHT...AND THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BURRUS

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-222000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1127 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE LATE
THIS MORNING. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST...AFFECTING
EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE WESTERN UPSTATE...AND THE NC
MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON. THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...ALONG
WITH THE REST OF THE UPSTATE COULD SEE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION. ALL LOCATIONS IN THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA COULD SEE SEVERE
WEATHER.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO OVER 60 MPH. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HAIL
OF DIME-SIZE OR LARGER...ALTHOUGH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL WILL
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...AS SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL...THERE WILL ALSO
BE A THREAT FOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE
FLOODING THREAT WILL BE AMPLIFIED IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE SEVERAL
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER COULD ALSO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

JRL