Flash Flood in North Carolina, July 22, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
327 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

LARGE MCS SUPPORTED BY STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND UPPER SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL SW
TROUGH...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RRQ OF 90+KT H2 JET...HAS PUSHED
INTO THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINATION OF MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILE IS RESULTING IN
ORGANIZED...INTENSE CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MCS...AND EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WE WILL ADVERTISE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS
THE WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA...AND WITH THE STRONG FORCING AVAILABLE...
CONVECTION WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM SWEEPING TOWARD THE I-77 CORRIDOR
EARLY IN THE FIRST PERIOD...SO WILL ADVERTISE CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER MCS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL NO DOUBT BE EXTREMELY WORKED OVER BY THIS EVENINGS CONVECTION.
MEANWHILE...THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR NEW MCS DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING WOULD BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA/NORTH
GEORGIA...WHERE THE BEST COMBO OF BL CONVERGENCE/UPPER JET
DIVERGENCE WILL BE CO-LOCATED. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS IN THIS AREA IS
STRUGGLING TO RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
THEREFORE...CHANCES ARE IFFY THAT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG
FORCING PERSISTING OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT FEEL THAT MOST OF THE EXCITEMENT
SHOULD BE OVER BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST UPPER
FORCING WILL SHIFT. WE WILL HOLD ON TO A LIKELY POP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. POPS WILL BE TAPERED BACK TO A LOW CHANCE BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST. THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE...WHILE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. WE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE REMAINING IN THE
EAST AND SOUTH.

EASTERN TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES FOR THE WEEKEND...MAKING THE CURRENT DRY
FORECAST FOR FRI-SUN STILL SEEM REASONABLE. MEANWHILE...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A REAMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SO POPS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST.

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

LANE

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-221200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
607 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS...WITH
DAMAGING WIND THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED DURING THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT...AND
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
TONIGHT...AND THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BURRUS

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001-002-004-005-010-011-221915-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
215 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS APPROACHING RAPIDLY FROM NORTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS LINE OF SEVERE STORMS HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. IF THE LINE HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL REACH
THE COUNTIES OF RABUN...HABERSHAM...STEPHENS...AND HART BY 230 PM TO
245 PM. EVENTUALLY...THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL OF
EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA BETWEEN
230 PM AND 3 PM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE MEDIA FOR UPCOMING
WEATHER WARNINGS AND PREPARE TO TAKE SHELTER IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
248 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

244 PM     MT AIRY                   GA   HAIL
07/22/03   HABERSHAM                      PEA SIZE HAIL AND 45 MPH
                                          RECORDED WIND GUST AT
                                          COUNTY EOC BUILDING.

LAMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
301 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

252 PM     TOCCOA                    GA   WIND DAMAGE
07/22/03   STEPHENS                       FRANKLIN 911 REPORTED
                                          TREES DOWN ON HWY 320.

257 PM     TOCCOA                    GA   WIND DAMAGE
07/22/03   STEPHENS                       FRANKLIN EOC REPORTED
                                          TREES DOWN ON WALKER RD.

130 PM     CASHIERS                  NC   WIND DAMAGE
07/22/03   JACKSON                        COUNTY EOC REPORTED TREE
                                          DOWN ON CASHIERS LAKE RD.

LAMB

NCZ034>037-054>056-066>069-221915-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE BLUE RIDGE...

AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND OUT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL. IF THE THUNDERSTORMS HOLD TOGETHER...THEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. PEOPLE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF
NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS AND LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
333 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

300 PM     TOCCOA                    GA   WIND DAMAGE
07/22/03   STEPHENS                       EOC REPORTED DOWNED TREES
                                          ON HWY 17 ALONG WITH
                                          MARBLE SIZE HAIL.

315 PM     OAKWAY                    SC   WIND DAMAGE
07/22/03   OCONEE                         HAM REPORTED TREES DOWN
                                          ON HWY 182 AND 24.

330 PM     OAKWAY                    SC   WIND DAMAGE
07/22/03   OCONEE                         HAM REPORTED TREES DOWN
                                          ON SOUTH FRIENDSHIP RD.

LAMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
400 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

340 PM     TWIN LAKES                SC   WIND DAMAGE
07/22/03   PICKENS                        CAMPERS OVERTURNED AND
                                          TREES DOWN REPORTED BY
                                          COUNTY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

KRENTZ