Flash Flooding and Hail in North Carolina, July 19, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003

WEAK PVA AREA ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING 50H TROUGH HAS FIRED SOME
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ENDING EARLY TONIGHT AS
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS AREA WILL BE A BIT MORE
UNSTABLE. OTHERWISE WILL FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER AREA MONDAY AS
STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  WITH MORE MOIST CONDITIONS
RETURNING MONDAY WILL SEE RETURN TO CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A
MOST IMPRESSIVE 50H TROUGH APPROACHING AND REMAINING WEST OF AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TROUGH MOVES EAST OF AREA
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.RAH...NONE.

SWH

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-191200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
552 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A WEAK FRONT MOVING SOUTH OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS...BUT HAIL
AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING IN
THE WEST...AND AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY...
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. VERY WARM AND
MOIST CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW A FEW OF THESE
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER NETWORK ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY AS MID DAY
TODAY...AND NEEDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-191835-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1135 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OVER THE SOUTHER PIEDMONT...
SANDHILLS AND AREA EAST OF I-95. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM
HEAVY RAINS AND SOME DAMAGING WINDS... BUT SMALL HAIL AND FLOODING
FROM THE HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SCATTERED STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EARLY EVENING... AND END IN THE WEST AROUND SUNSET OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ...AND IN THE EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

SKYWARN SPOTTERS...NETWORK ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT DIPPING SOUTH INTO THE STATE TODAY COMBINED
WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

NCZ022-192000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
304 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS GUILFORD COUNTY THROUGH 400
PM EDT...

AT 304 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 11 MILES
NORTHWEST OF STOKESDALE...OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTH OF BELEWS CREEK...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...STOKESDALE AND
LAKE TOWNSEND JUST NORTH OF GREENSBORO.

SMALL HAIL CAN ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS

GUSTY WINDS UP OF 40 TO 50 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

JWC