Damaging Wind in North Carolina, July 10, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
327 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

MCS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND THE NC PIEDMONT.
IN ITS WAKE IS A NEARLY SATURATED BL WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 70S. UPSTREAM ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN GA...AND WILL FOLLOW TRACK OF THE FIRST. WITH LITTLE TIME
FOR THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER WILL EXPECT A SLOW WANING OF THE STRENGTH
OF THE ACTIVITY. FURTHER UPSTREAM...OVER CENTRAL TN...ANOTHER MCS
HAS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN MCV/VORT BAND. THIS ACTIVITY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A QUICK MOVING LINEAR BAND AND TRACK ENE
TOWARD THE FA. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...SOME STORMS
MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HAIL AROUND A PENNY...WILL LEAVE SVR WATCH
UNTOUCHED.

VORT OVER TN WILL MIGRATE EAST TONIGHT AND WILL EXPECT SH/TS TO
ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE. WILL EXTEND LIKELY POPS TO THE WEST OVER
NIGHT...TO THE EAST WILL REDUCE POPS TO A GOOD CHC OVERNIGHT. ETA
AND GFS BRING THE SFC FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE FA FRI. I WILL TREND
POPS EAST WITH EXPECTED FROPA...BY THE LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT CHC
TO THE EAST OF THE NC MTNS. GFS AND ETA ARE SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR FOR
SAT AS BOTH MODELS SPAWN A MCS OVER THE MS VALLEY SAT AM. I BELIEVE
THAT THE MODEL SOLUTION OF BRINGING THE ACTIVITY THIS FAR EAST IS
OVERDONE...WILL GO SCHC IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FA UNDER LONGWAVE TROF THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. TROF AMPLIFIES FROM SUN TO TUE AND WOULD EXPECT BEST
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO FOLLOW. HOWEVER...WITH THE HARDSHIP OF
TIMING POTENTIAL MCSS AND SHORTWAVES WILL LIMIT PRECIP WORDING TO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FAVOR GIVEN TO THE HIGH TERRAIN.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMP FORECAST...WILL KEEP TEMPS WITHIN ENSEMBLE
SPREAD.

FCSTID =   16
GSP   69  88  66  88 /  70  50  30  20
AND   69  89  67  89 /  70  50  30  20
CLT   70  89  67  90 /  60  40  40  20
HKY   68  86  65  86 /  60  50  30  20
AVL   66  83  59  83 /  70  50  20  20

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

NED

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-101200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
604 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY BECOMING
SEVERE AND SOME PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR FURTHER
DETAILS...REFER TO THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SPSGSP...
ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH DAILY CHANCES
RETURNING AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SCZ006-011-012-019-101720-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1236 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF VERY
HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON.  AT 1230 PM EDT  THE STORMS WERE IN ANDERSON
AND ABBEVILLE COUNTIES...STORMS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE EAST
AT 25 MPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPSTATE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND THESE STORM MAY PRODUCE WINDS OF MORE
THAN 50 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.  THERE HAVE
BEEN MANY REPORTS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE THROUGHOUT THE UPSTATE SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS
AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO
A PLACE OF SAFETY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

DICARLO

SCZ007-008-012-013-019-101815-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
123 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF VERY
HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON.  THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SPARTANBURG...LAURENS AND GREENWOOD
COUNTIES BY 200 PM. THE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
CHEROKEE AND UNION COUNTIES BY 230 PM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPSTATE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND THESE STORM MAY PRODUCE WINDS OF MORE
THAN 50 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.  THERE HAVE
BEEN MANY REPORTS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE THROUGHOUT THE UPSTATE SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS
AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO
A PLACE OF SAFETY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

DICARLO

NCZ071-082-SCZ008-009-013-014-101915-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
245 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

AT 245 PM... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN CHEROKEE
COUNTY AND NORTHERN UNION COUNTY MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST AT
15 TO 20 MPH.  NEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS YORK COUNTY.

ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. BOATERS ON LAKE WYLIE
SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO AN AREA OF SAFETY.

SEVERAL SMALL DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN SOUTHERN
MECKLENBURG COUNTY... NEAR PINEVILLE... AT  245 PM.  HOWEVER...
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL NOT ARRIVE IN MECKLENBURG COUNTY UNTIL AFTER 315 PM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLOTTE METRO
AREA UNTIL 600 PM.

LGL

NCZ070>072-082-SCZ009-014-101955-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

AT 325 PM... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED IN AN ARC FROM NEAR
KINGS MOUNTAINS SOUTHEAST TO ROCK HILL THEN SOUTH THROUGH RICHBURG
IN CHESTER COUNTY.  A WIND GUST TO 41 MPH WAS RECORDED AT THE ROCK
HILL AIRPORT IN YORK COUNTY AT 311 PM.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AT
APPROXIMATELY 20 MPH.  THEY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE
METROPOLITAN AREA BEFORE 430 PM.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN... STRONG AND
GUSTY WIND... AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL WILL OCCUR.

LAKE WYLIE WILL EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORM WEATHER. BOATERS AND
SWIMMERS IN LAKE NORMAN SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE THUNDERSTORMS TRAVEL TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE
NORMAN BY 400 PM.  ANYONE OUTSIDE SHOULD REMEMBER THAT LIGHTNING
ACCOMPANIES ALL THUNDERSTORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLOTTE METRO
AREA UNTIL 600 PM.

LGL