Hail and Damaging Wind in North Carolina, August 4, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
223 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2003

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO REMAIN W OF AREA. REMNANTS OF WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY APPEAR TO REACH AREA LATE TUE...STALLING OVER
AREA....WITH SURFACE WAVE MOVING INTO AREA FROM W WED. FIRST OF
SEVERALE VORT LOBES MOVES ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LEFT POPS AT LIKELY NE THIS EVENING...WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY
EXPECTED...WITH HIGH CHANCE REST OF AREA. ANOTHER VORT LOBE TO PASS
TO SW OF AREA LATE TUE. CARRIED CHANCE POPS...BEST IN WHERE VORT
LOBE COMES CLOSEST. THIRD VORT MAX APPROACHES WED...AND CARRIED
CHANCE POP ACROSS AREA. WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND POSSIBLE
BOUNDARY...LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE EACH NIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT
TO CROSS AREA EARLY THU...SUPPORTING ANOTHER DAY OF CHACNE POPS.
TEMPERATURES NEAR PERSISTENCE EACH DAY...GENERALLY LOW TO MID 80S
OVER MID TO UPPER 60S.

POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER TO EXIST THROUGH EARLY PART OF
PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE QPF NOT EXPECTED TO VERY GREAT ON ANY
GIVEN DAY...CUMULATIVE EFFECT ON ALREADY SOAKED SOIL COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING BY MID WEEK. WILL ISSUE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK.

EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES WEAK STATIONARY FRONT STALLED ACROSS
CENTRAL CAROLINAS. CARRIED CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE LATE EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AGAIN NEAR
PERSISTENCE.

FCSTID =    7
GSP   68  87  69  85 /  50  30  30  40
AND   68  88  69  85 /  50  30  30  40
CLT   68  88  70  85 /  60  30  30  40
HKY   65  85  67  83 /  60  30  30  40
AVL   62  83  64  81 /  50  40  40  40

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

O7

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-041115-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
517 AM EDT MON AUG 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG AND A FEW COULD REACH SEVERE
LEVELS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE ANTICIPATED. SEE THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (CAESPSGSP) FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL AUGMENT ONGOING ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR FLOODING. IN
ADDITION...THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BECOME QUITE STRONG AND A FEW
COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NED

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-050000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
214 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES
IN...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE STATUS...CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS AS HIGH AS 70 MPH AND HAIL AS LARGE AS QUARTERS.
THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE THE
MOUNTAINS...AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...WHICH HAVE HAD THE
MOST DAYTIME HEATING AND HAVE BECOME THE MOST UNSTABLE.
HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT AS
WELL.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

BURRUS