Flood in North Carolina, April 10 to 11, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
930 PM EDT THU APR 10 2003

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS SC THIS EVENING. DEFORMATION ZONE
AND HEAVY PRECIP AXIS HAS LIFTED WELL TO THE N BUT LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS REGION. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MORE THAN ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH. FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONTINUED ACROSS NC PORTION OF THE FCST
AREA WHERE RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL KEEP THREAT OF NEW FLOODING AS WATER
MOVES THRU BASINS. THIS ALSO HOLDS TRUE FOR ERN PIEDMONT OF SC. WILL
DROP FLOOD WATCH FOR REST OF UPSTATE SC AND NE GEORGIA WHERE
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO ENUF TO CAUSE FLOOD PROBLEMS.

FFC SOUNDING SHOWS FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 4000 FEET. LOW PRECIP RATE
AND LACK OF DYNAMIC COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL WET
SNOW FROM MOUNTAINS OF EXTREME NE GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SC...SO WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELLED. WILL CONTINUE WARNING FOR NC
MOUNTAINS UNTIL IT APPEARS THAT THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS GONE
COMPLETELY. THERE COULD BE SOME WRAP AROUND NEAR TN BORDER TOO.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST WILL BE EVALUATED OVER THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR
SO. MIGHT TWEAK TEMPS UP/DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS THEY PROBABLY WONT
BUDGE MUCH OVERNIGHT.

.GSP...
GA...NONE.

NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES NCZ033...
NCZ048>053...NCZ058>059...NCZ062>065.

FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES NCZ033>037...NCZ048>059...
NCZ062>072...NCZ082.

SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES SCZ008-009-014.

MOORE

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 300 PM...
DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS S CWA BRINGING STRONG LIFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE OVER AREA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COUPLET KEEPING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN GOING OVER MUCH
OF W NC AND PARTS OF UPSTATE SC AND NE GA..WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS
MOVING FROM E TO WEST ACROSS THE N. COLD AIR ALOFT IS ALLOWING
SNOWFALL TO REACH DOWN BELOW 3000 FEET WITH MDT-HVY ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE HIGHER MTNS. SOME MTN VALLEYS MAY PICK UP ANOTHER INCH OR SO
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO WRAP INTO THE
LOW AS IT TRACKS EAST OVERNIGHT AND SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH AND TURN
BACK TO RAIN. STRONG UPSLOPE NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE
DUMPING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER THE NC ZONES WELL INTO THE NIGHT
...TAPERING OFF TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH AND WINTER
STORM WARNING/ADVISORY FOR CURRENT AREAS OVERNIGHT.

UPPER TROF LINGERS OVER THE E COAST AND IS SLOWER TO EJECT THAN
EARLIER FCST...BUT SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL BUILDS IN TOWARD LATE
WEEKEND. NO FURTHER PRECIP FCST FROM SAT THRU MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S IN THE MTNS WITH 70S ELSEWHERE.

FCSTID =   77
GSP   40  54  42  68 /  60  30  10   0
AND   41  56  42  68 /  60  30  10   0
CLT   40  55  43  69 /  70  40  10   0
HKY   39  53  41  67 /  70  40  10   0
AVL   37  46  38  63 /  70  30  10  10

RB

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-101200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EDT THU APR 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING ABUNDANT
RAINFALL TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY CREATE FLOODING
TODAY AND TONIGHT ON STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE
SEE THE PRODUCT FFAGSP FOR DETAILS ON THE FLOOD WATCH.

COLD AIR ALOFT UNDER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER ALLOW SOME
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM AN INCH OR
LESS IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO 6 TO 12 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000
FEET. PLEASE SEE THE WINTER STORM WARNING...WSWGSP...FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY FLOODING OR HEAVY SNOWFALL
REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HG