Hail in New Mexico, May 15, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1045 AM MDT THU MAY 15 2003

INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IN THE NE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COVERED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE. I DID ADD MENTION OF STRONG WINDS AND HAIL IN SOME
NRN AND ERN ZONES...OUTSIDE THE MAIN THREAT AREA. DOWNBURST WINDS
AND DRY LIGHTNING A BIG CONCERN IN THE NW QUARTER OF THE STATE.
BEEFED UP WINDS SOME MOST ZONES TO HIGH END ADVISORY WINDS...AND
ADDED UNION COUNTY INTO THE ADVISORY. IMPROVED SKY COVER TO MOSTLY
SUNNY IN OUR SW ZONES AND PARTLY CLOUDY OR BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN
THE E. CLEARING LINE ALREADY APPROACHING CLAYTON TO ROSWELL. BUMPED
TEMPS UP SOME CNTRL AND NE ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS MAIN CONCERNS TODAY.

DRY LINE SET UP IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE ENHANCED BY UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS STATE TODAY. LATE DAY INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS WILL PEAK IN THE NORTHEAST FOR A SHORT TIME IN
COINCIDENCE WITH DRY PUNCH ADVANCING NEWD ACROSS REGION. MESOETA
PROGS SHOW ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF CAPE NEAR 00Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF
-5. BRN SHEAR AROUND 150 AND EHI ABOUT 1.5. VGP AROUND THE .27
TORNADIC SUPERCELL THRESHOLD. EXPECTED INTERSECTION OF DRY LINE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHEAST COULD BE FOCAL POINT FOR SEVERE WX
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY FEEL MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS
WITH DRY PUNCH COMING IN AND ALSO TORNADIC POTENTIAL NEAR BOUNDARIES.
LATER THIS EVENING...COLD CORE OF -14C AT H5 WILL ADD INSTABILITY AND
POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL IN ELEVATED STORMS LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS EASTERN PLAINS.

MEANWHILE FARTHER WEST...AS COLD CORE FIRST APPROACHES NM...TEMP AT
H5 WILL BE -19C...SUPPORTING STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES OF 9.5C/KM.
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY GOING OVER PARTS OF AZ AND COULD FORM AS FAR
SOUTH AS EDGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD ACROSS WC MTNS INTO CNTRL
MTN CHAIN. THIS AREA FAVORED FOR DRY TSTMS AND MICROBURST WINDS BEING
MIXED TO SURFACE...BUT HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE CO BORDER. IN ANY
EVENT...GUSTY WINDS OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE TRANSLATED TO
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY AROUND 00Z AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENSUES ON BACK
SIDE OF UPPER LOW. WILL LIKELY HAVE FIRE WX HEADLINES LATER THIS
MORNING DEPENDING ON FINAL HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED AT SURFACE.

PCPN WILL LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF CWFA.
EASTERLY COMPONENT AFTER DECENT RAINS IN TX PH AND NE NM MAY LEAD
TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUT PERIODS WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNTIL TUES/WED WHEN LOOKS LIKE A
PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE EAST.

.ABQ...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING NMZ005>021-026
RED FLAG WARNING FOR NMZ105-106

CHJ

NMZ001>021-026-161200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1100 AM MDT THU MAY 15 2003

UPDATED FOR MINOR WORDING CHANGES AND TO EMPHASIZE THE NORTHEAST.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST OVER
UNION...HARDING AND QUAY COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE
DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD TEXAS THIS EVENING...HOWEVER A FEW
STORMS MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.

ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG MICROBURST WINDS AROUND 55 MPH. IN
ADDITION...DRY LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
VERY LITTLE RAINFALL.

EVEN WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT FORM...WINDS WILL BE STRONG. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER
CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE ACROSS UNION...HARDING AND QUAY COUNTIES BETWEEN THE HOURS
OF 3 PM AND 9 PM.

CHJ