Hail in New Jersey, March 21, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
213 PM EST FRI MAR 21 2003

WELCOME TO THE FIRST FULL DAY OF SPRING 2003.

FIRST THIS EVENING...UPPER JET MOVING BY TO THE SE PUTS US INTO THE
FRONT LEFT QUADRANT OF THE JET. IN ADDITION...SOME CAPE HAS DVLPD AS
FCST AND WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM THE WEST...SVR
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT PER SWOMCD DISCUSSION. NRN ZONES DO NOT
QUITE HAVE THE DYNAMICS AS FARTHER SOUTH...BUTH THEY HAVE RECEIVED
MORE SUN THAN SOUTH AND WITH CNVCTN DVLPG WRN PA...I WILL WORD ALL
ZONES AS SHWRS LIKELY AND CHC OF TSTMS EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME
TSTMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

THEN DRYING OVERNIGHT AND REMAINING DRY FOR THE WEEKEND. A SECONDARY
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST AGAIN SATURDAY. IT LOOKS DRY
ENOUGH TO LEAVE PCPN OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE UPPER
SHORT WAVE AND COLD AIR ALFT MOVES BY MAINLY TO THE NORTH SAT AFTN.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM WITH MIXING AND SUNSHINE. IF EVEN A NARROW BAND OF
MOISTURE DVLPS...RW/TRW COULD FORM IN THE AFTN.

GUIDANCE TEMPS GENLY LOOK OK.

LONGER RANGE...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION WED
INTO THU. LOW PRES MAY FORM ON THE FRONT THU AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

FCSTID =    9
MPO   41  54  37  49 /  60  20  10   0
ABE   47  63  40  54 /  60  20  10   0
RDG   46  62  40  54 /  60  20  10   0
PHL   50  67  41  56 /  60  10  10   0
12N   43  58  39  52 /  60  20  10   0
SMQ   50  66  41  55 /  60  20  10   0
TTN   50  66  41  55 /  60  20  10   0
MIV   50  68  41  57 /  60  10  10   0
ACY   50  67  45  55 /  60  10  10   0
ILG   50  66  42  56 /  60  10  10   0
DOV   50  68  44  57 /  60  10  10   0
GED   50  67  45  57 /  60  10  10   0
ESN   50  64  45  57 /  60  10  10   0

.PHI...
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SCA ON THE OCEAN.

RNS

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-211130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
429 AM EST FRI MAR 21 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...AND
NEW JERSEY EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

PLEASE REFER TO THE OUR FLOOD STATEMENTS CONCERNING THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL ON THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT CONOWINGO DAM AS WELL AS
THE CHRISTINA RIVER AT COOCHS BRIDGE. THESE STATEMENTS CAN BE FOUND
UNDER WGUS81 KPHI PHLFLSPHI.

ALSO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAL OKLAHOMA HAS PLACED
PORTIONS OF THE REGION UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PLEASE REFER TO ACUS01 KWNS SWODY1 OR WWUS81 KPHI
PHLSPSPHI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

KRUZDLO

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ012>027-PAZ060-067>071-220000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1100 AM EST FRI MAR 21 2003

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...AND
THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...

THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY WARM, MOIST AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SUN BREAKS OUT THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. FOR THIS REASON...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN
OKLAHOMA HAS PLACED THE MENTIONED AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY.

MIKETTA