Hail and Damaging Winds in New Jersey, July 22, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
955 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

.DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS PACKAGE APPEARS REASONABLE AS FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THUS PREVAIL ACROSS
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK
IN THE ACTION UNTIL MID AFTERNOON SO WILL UPDATE TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING. IN ADDITION...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES UNTIL
AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
&&

.HYDRO...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS A THREAT FROM LATER IN THE DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS JUST MENTIONED PREFER TO HOLD OFF ON ANY
WATCHES UNTIL 12Z DATA LOOKED AT. LOOKING FOR SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO YESTERDAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS AND VSBY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
SANDY HOOK NJ NORTHEAST ACROSS KFRG...KHVN AND KIJD WILL SLOWLY
LIFT...BECOMING MVFR CIGS AND VSBY BY 16Z AND MVFR IN HAZE BY 18Z.
SCT SHOWERS...ADVECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NJ MAY IMPACT
KEWR...KTEB AND KSWF BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND
DEVELOPING TSTMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM THE NYC TERMINALS
WEST AFTER 20Z...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET.
&&

***********************  PREVIOUS DISCUSSION  *******************
.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY TO
THE EAST ALONG WITH BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC AREA. SHORT WAVES
CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME. ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL COME
THROUGH LATER TODAY. WILL SEE PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH THE SHOWERS ENDING LATE THURSDAY AS TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT FINALLY MOVE THROUGH. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY
PROBABILITIES INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO
DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS.
&&

.MARINE...SCA FOR ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN TDY. WINDS MAY BE A TOUCH
LESS STRONG THAN YDAYS SPEEDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WL CONT
TO BUILD...AND EVENTUALLY GET TO AROUND 7 FT BY TNGT. SCA MAY BE
NEEDED FOR ALL AREA WATERS ON WED AS WINDS CRANK UP TO ARND 25 KTS.
SEAS/WINDS WL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS SFC WAVE OF LOPRES MOVES TO THE
NE ON THURS.
&&

.OKX CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
         ANZ355-353-350.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-231000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
525 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE REGION IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING IN
URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. SEE THE NYCESFOKX PRODUCT
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE REGION IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING WEDNESDAY MAY PRODUCE
FLOODING IN URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. CONTINUED
RAINFALL MAY ALSO LEAD TO FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY ON LONG ISLAND SOUND
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUING ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO
THURSDAY.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

CTZ009-NJZ006-011-NYZ071>077-221915-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
224 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

AT 221 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN UPTON NY
HAS DETECTED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3
MILES WEST OF COLONIA TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUGUENOT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE VICINITY OF...
COLONIA...LINDEN...HOBOKEN...UNION CITY AROUND 230 PM...BAYONNE
AROUND 235 PM. THE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NASSAU
AND NORTHWEST SUFFOLK COUNTY...WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 57 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE
STORMS.