Heavy Snow in New Jersey, February 17, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WWA SECTION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
948 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2003

...WL BE ISSUING A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ENTIRE CWA...

SNOW IS GRDLY SPREADING NEWD...ALREADY SEEING AMTS OF 1-2 WHERE
SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING FOR A WHILE.  WL UP AMOUNTS FOR THE OVRNGT...
WHICH IN TURN WL UP THE TOTAL AMTS FOR THE EVENT.  JUST GOT A QUIK
PEEK AT ERLY PTNS OF 00Z ETA AND GIVEN UVV FIELD PROGGED TO MOV IN
THIS DIRECTION LTR TMRW...WL GO 6-10 ALL ZNS AND DOWNPLAY THE PL
MIXING ERN ZNS A BIT.  OTHR ADJUSTMENTS MINOR.

WINDS HI ENUF AND CONFIDENCE IS HI ENUF TO ISSUE BLIZZARD WRNG.  WL
ISSUE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AND NOT CONFINE TO JUST CSTL AREAS.

REYNOLDS/MET

*** 430 PM DISCUSSION ***

CURRENTLY...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS JUST STARTING TO REACH UP INTO THE
NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...AS OUR DRY LOWER LAYER CONTINUES
TO MOISTEN. UNDER A FAIRLY THICK CANOPY OF CIRRUS...DAYTIME HEATING
WAS SEVERELY LIMITED TODAY...AND AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES DID NOT
CLIMB MUCH TODAY. AS OF 3 PM...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION WERE IN THE MID TEENS. AS THE SNOW HAS STARTED TO ENCROACH ON
THE AREA...EXISTING CLOUD DECKS HAVE STARTED TO DROP...AND NEW LOWER
CLOUDS HAVE ADVECTED IN.

BIG PICTURE...A FAIRLY WEAK LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
REDEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...AND MOVE NORTHEAST.
THIS STORM WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. AS A RESULT...SNOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TONIGHT...AND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
WE GO ALONG. BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY...WE WILL FELL THE FULL BRUNT OF
A NOREASTER. WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH...ALONG WITH THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FALLING
AND BLOWING SNOW...WE WILL SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

RIGHT NOW...LOOK FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH AND WEST...AND SLIGHTLY
LESS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT. I AM LOOKING FOR
THIS TO BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT DO THINK
THAT SOME SLEET COULD MIX IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY. THIS IS THE REASON WHY I HAVE HELD DOWN THE SNOW TOTALS IN
THESE AREAS.

STORM STARTS TO PULL AWAY MONDAY EVENING...AND WELL SEE CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THEN...SHOULD SEE
A BIG IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

.EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY - SUNDAY. PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL BEFORE A
LONGWAVE TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
DRIVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LEAVING OUR AREA
IN WARM ADVECTION AND RAIN FOR SATURDAY. COLD FROPA SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH COOL AND BREEZY WX FOR SUNDAY.

DID ADD CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY BASED ON GFS AS INDUCED BY A JET STREAK.

.TEMPS...MID 40S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PREDICTED BY THE MRF
MOS. WILL TEND TO GO LOWER...AT LEAST ON WEDNESDAY...DUE TO THE NEW
SNOW COVER. WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING AFFECTS AREA. SOME CIRRUS COULD CUT THIS
DOWN THOUGH.

.MODELS...WHILE ENSEMBLES HAVE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD BY DAY SIX...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE FOR A WARM SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH THAT FLOODING FROM
RAIN AND MAINLY SNOW MELT WOULD BE A BIG CONCERN.  PUT ABOUT 1/2
INCH OF QPF IN THE GRIDS PER THE MEAN OF THE 12Z GFS.

.MARINE...STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN AND SCA FOR THE
SOUND AN HARBOR. STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD BE IN GUSTS WORKING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE PER BUFKIT.

COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY...BUT WELL UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT TO ISSUE THE WARNING AS THE MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
TIMES FOR THE TIDES TO GO OVER MODERATE.

.AVIATION...CIGS LOWER THE IFR QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE SNOW
MOVES IN. EXPECT TO BE INTERMITTENTLY LIFR ALL DAY MONDAY AS BLOWING
SNOW KEEPS VSBY AT 1/4 NM OR LESS.

.HYDRO...EXPECT 1 TO MAYBE 1.5 LIQUID EQUIVALENTS WITH THE SNOW
EVENT ON TOP OF AN ALREADY GOOD SNOWPACK. PROBLEMS MAY COME ON
SATURDAY...BUT IF QPF IS ONLY 1/2 INCH AS CURRENTLY
FCSTED...SNOWPACK SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE IT.

OKX TEAM:
SHORT TERM: JK
LONG TERM: TONGUE
AVIATION/MARINE: EKH
HMT: AL/JT

*** CURRENT W/W/A INFORMATION ***

.OKX...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH MON EVENING CTZ005>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MON FOR CTZ009>012.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH MON EVENING NJZ002>006-011.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MON FOR NJZ005-006-011.
NY...BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH MON EVENING NYZ067>081.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MON FOR NYZ071>081.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR MON FOR ANZ350-353-355
         GALE WARNING FOR MON FOR ANZ330-335-338.
         HEAVY SURF ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN SHORES.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-171200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION TO SPOTTER INFO...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
740 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT...AND ACCUMULATE 4 TO
6 INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND 2 TO 4 INCHES INLAND BY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MONDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 10 TO 15 INCHES
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND 8 TO 14 INCHES FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT WHERE SOME SLEET IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 45 MPH.

TIDES WILL ALSO BE RISING TO AROUND 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND AS SUCH
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY THE LATE MONDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

A STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WITH GALE
WARNINGS FOR LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SNOWFALL AND OTHER HAZARDOUS
WEATHER REPORTS.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON
MONDAY.

PLEASE EMAIL SPOTTER REPORTS TO OKX.SPOTTERS@NOAA.GOV (ALL LOWER
CASE LETTERS).  REPORTS CAN ALSO BE RELAYED THROUGH YOUR AREA
AMATEUR RADIO NET CONTROL STATION OR VIA PHONE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON.

REYNOLDS

NYZ075>077-080-081-171200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1037 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2003

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUES THE HEAVY SURF ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND...

THE DEVELOPING NOREASTER WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES ON THE COASTAL
WATERS ALONG WITH THE SNOW AND POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING.  WAVES OF
10 TO 15 FEET WILL POUND THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY.
SEAS OF THESE HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MODERATE LEVELS OF
BEACH EROSION AND OVER WASHES.

COASTAL RESIDENTS THAT AS PRONE TO THESE CONDITIONS NEED TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV

REYNOLDS