Heavy Snow in New Jersey, December 5 to 7, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1150 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2003

.DISCUSSION

CURRENTLY...LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
NYC METRO AREA...AS WELL AS LONG ISLAND. NOT FAR BEHIND...ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...IS A
BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW. THIS PRECIPITATION IS HEAVY ENOUGH THAT IT
SHOULD MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR ALL OF NEW JERSEY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ATLANTIC CITY.
THEREFORE...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SNOW MOVING INTO THE CITY
A LITTLE SOONER THAN EXPECTED...AS WELL AS THE LIKELYHOOD OF SEEING
A QUICK BURST OF SNOW...WILL UPDATE THE GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS
TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD (FROM CATEGORICAL FOR THE CITY AND
LONG ISLAND TO LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FAR NORTH)...AS WELL AS
TO INCREASE ACCUMULATIONS (UP TO TWO INCHES FOR NYC AND LONG ISLAND
TO UP TO AN INCH FAR NORTH). THE GREATEST CHANGE WILL BE REFELCTED
IN THE EXPECTATION FOR NYC AND VICINITY AND LONG ISLAND...WHILE THIS
UPDATE WILL REFLECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THINKING FAR NORTH FOR
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE STARTING THEIR RAMP UPWARD AS EXPECTED.
MAGNITUDES ARE NOW 20 TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN AND 15 TO 20 KT
ELSEWHERE. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN UP...AS WINDS SHOULD INCREASE IN
STRENGTH AND REACH THIS CRITERIA TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND IFR VIS IS
CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING THE METRO NY/NJ AIRPORTS. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NE TOWARD KHPN BY 18Z AND THEN KBDR AND KSWF BY
20Z AND GON AFTER DARK. PTYPE WILL BE PROBLAMATIC AFTER 00Z FOR THE
LONG ISLAND AND METRO NY/NJ AIRPORTS...WITH 12Z ETA BUFKIT SOUNDING
STILL SHOWING BULK OF LIFT AND MOISTURE AT LEVELS WARMER THAN -10 TO
-16C OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL NOT SUPPORT GOOD SNOW GROWTH...DESPITE A
BELOW FREEZING COLUMN THROUGH ABOUT 950 MB. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AS THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NC COAST MOVE NE OVER THE
GULF STREAM AND THE SECOND STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE GETS GOING
AFTER 12Z OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. WE WILL SEE MORE OF A MIX OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW...SLEET...AND RAIN AFTER 00Z THROUGH AROUND 12Z
ALONG THE COAST AND INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. CONDITIONS SHOULD COME UP TO MVFR IN
THIS OVERNIGHT LULL. THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GET GOING
THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW...WITH STRONG DEFORMATION AND
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO COME DOWN TO
IFR/LIFR FROM LATE MORNING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW HEAVY AT
TIMES.  WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL TOMORROW WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KT AND GUSTS TO 40KT FROM THE EARLY
MORNING ON...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER
KHPN AND KSWF.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING ALL ZONES...TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING ALL ZONES...TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING ALL ZONES...TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS (ANZ355-353-350-335-330-338).

******************* PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED AT 410 AM *******************

.SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION MOVING UP THE COAST AT THIS TIME AS
COMPLEX WINTER STORM HEADING OUR WAY. 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE WITH
IDEA OF A PROLONGED WINTER WEATHER EVENT STARTING LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MAIN FEATURES THROUGH ABOUT 30 HOURS OR SO...THEN DIFFERENCES...SOME
SIGNIFICANT...WORK INTO THE PICTURE. BIGGEST PROBLEM THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE AMOUNTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS AS A
MIX WILL PREVAIL FOR A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE EVENT. BEST ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR COAST DURING THE ENDING OF THE EVENT AS
COLDER AIR WORKS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING ALL
ZONES ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS MAY BE UNDER CRITERIA ALONG THE COAST. THE
REASON FOR THE WARNING HERE IS THAT IT IS THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF
THE YEAR AND I BELIEVE SUCH A WARNING IN WARRANTED.

TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WHEN EVENT ENDS...
INLAND ZONES AROUND A FOOT. METROPOLITAN NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY
AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 8 INCHES...SUFFOLK COUNTY LONG ISLAND 4 TO 6
INCHES.

.LONG TERM...DRY MONDAY THROUGH MIDDAY OR SO WEDNESDAY WHEN NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
POINTS TO AN ALL RAIN EVENT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT THIS WEEKEND BUT BASICALLY SNOW
SO LIMITED IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEE ABOVE FOR FORECASTED
SNOW AMOUNTS.
&&

******************************************************************

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
505 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2003

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-051004-
BERGEN NJ-BRONX NY-EASTERN PASSAIC NJ-ESSEX NJ-HUDSON NJ-
KINGS (BROOKLYN) NY-NASSAU NY-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) NY-
NORTHEAST SUFFOLK NY-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-NORTHERN NEW LONDON CT-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-
NORTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-ORANGE NY-PUTNAM NY-QUEENS NY-
RICHMOND (STATEN IS.) NY-ROCKLAND NY-SOUTHEAST SUFFOLK NY-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON CT-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-
UNION NJ-WESTERN PASSAIC NJ-
505 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A
MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET ALONG THE COAST. ACCUMULATIONS BY THE
EVENING RUSH HOURS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS. TONIGHT A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT AS THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVIER ALTHOUGH NEAR
THE COAST A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE. ACCUMULATINS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY SHOULD BE 1 TO 2 NEAR THE COAST WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES INLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST WITH AROUND A FOOT ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...TIDES WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE DUE TO THE NOREASTER AND IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE MINOR
TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
309 PM EST FRI DEC 05 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0230 PM    FLORAL PARK               NY   0.00 INCH SNOW
12/05/03   NASSAU                         5.1

0230 PM    SEA CLIFF                 NY   0.00 INCH SNOW
12/05/03   NASSAU                         2.5

0235 PM    HARRISON                  NJ   3.00 INCH SNOW
12/05/03   HUDSON

0230 PM    PLAINVIEW                 NY   3.10 INCH SNOW
12/05/03   NASSAU

0205 PM    WEST ISLIP                NY   3.50 INCH SNOW
12/05/03   SUFFOLK

0300 PM    MERRICK                   NY   3.80 INCH SNOW
12/05/03   NASSAU

0205 PM    CENTEREACH                NY   2.00 INCH SNOW
12/05/03   SUFFOLK

0200 PM    LITTLE FALLS              NJ   1.50 INCH SNOW
12/05/03   PASSAIC

0200 PM    CENTRAL PARK              NY   2.50 INCH SNOW
12/05/03   NEW YORK

0200 PM    LAGUARDIA AIRPORT         NY   2.00 INCH SNOW
12/05/03   QUEENS

0230 PM    SEA CLIFF                 NY   2.50 INCH SNOW
12/05/03   NASSAU

0200 PM    LONG BEACH                NY   3.00 INCH SNOW
12/05/03   NASSAU