Flash Flooding in New Jersey, August 1, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2003

CURRENTLY...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION W/
SHWR AND TSTM ACTIVITY ONGOING AS INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED SOME. THE
BEST INSTABILITY IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES AS MORE
SUNSHINE OCCURRED THERE. PW/S RUNNING AOA 2 INCHES...THEREFORE
CONVECTIVE CELLS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS W/ SOME POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING REPORTED. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS UPPER
JET LIFTS BY JUST TO OUR N AND SUBTLE SHORT WAVE EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...RATHER LOW AS OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS SHOULD BE
HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOR TONIGHT...THEN A BIT LOWER
FOR SAT INTO SUN.

OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME W/ MODELS HANDLING THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW FAIRLY WELL. W/ UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ALSO THE ATLANTIC. A VERY
MOIST S TO SW FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE CWA ON THE E SIDE
OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. JET ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP DOWN
THE WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...THEREFORE THE TROUGH ITSELF WILL
MOVE LITTLE. GFS AND ETA VERY CLOSE FOR MOST PERIODS...ALTHOUGH
SOME DIFFERENCE DURING THE SAT NIGHT TIME FRAME. GFS HAS LIFT
W/ WEAK JET STREAK LIFTING ACROSS THE N AND CENT PART OF THE CWA
SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE ETA HAS NOTHING. A LOOK AT THE CANADIAN AND
NOGAPS REVEALS MORE CLOSELY TO THE ETA. STILL W/ MOIST SOUTH
FLOW...COULD BE A CHC OF SOME PRECIP SAT NIGHT.

BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED (PER ETA BUFKIT PROFILES) FOR SUNDAY AS
MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD OCCUR. STILL SOME S/W ENERGY TO MOVE
THRU...THEREFORE CHC OF SHWRS AND TSTMS RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT...IT WILL BE RATHER HUMID.

AS FOR TEMPS...RAN FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUID AS THEY SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THINGS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S...THEREFORE SOME FOG POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...STILL TROUGH HANGING AROUND. IT LOOKS LIKE
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS MON THROUGH THURS (PERHAPS A DRY DAY ON WED...WE
ARE POCKETING A 20 POP THAT DAY) AS BLOCKING PATTERN HOLDS ON.
MODELS TRY AND LIFT UPPER JET NORTH ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
A DRY DAY...BUT WE WILL SEE HOW THAT TREND HOLDS UP.

MAY NEED A SCA BEGINNING SAT FOR SEAS.

FCSTID =   45
MPO   65  79  65  79 /  60  40  30  40
ABE   70  85  70  85 /  60  30  30  40
RDG   71  86  71  86 /  60  30  30  40
PHL   73  88  73  88 /  60  30  30  40
12N   69  84  69  84 /  60  40  30  40
SMQ   70  86  70  86 /  60  30  30  40
TTN   71  86  71  86 /  60  30  30  40
MIV   71  85  71  85 /  50  20  30  40
ACY   73  81  73  81 /  50  20  30  40
ILG   71  87  71  87 /  60  30  30  40
DOV   71  86  71  86 /  50  20  30  40
GED   72  85  72  85 /  50  20  30  40
ESN   71  86  71  85 /  50  20  30  40

.PHI...
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

GORSE/NYY

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-011045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
535 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...AND
NEW JERSEY EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT AND THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

EBERWINE

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021-023-024-012315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
415 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2003

...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THE LINE OF STORMS CROSSING THE BAY...

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THE EASTERN SHORE AS IF 415 PM
HAS BEEN PRODUCING PROLIFIC CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. APPROXIMATELY
250 CLOUD TO GROUND STROKES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING EVERY 15 MINUTES.
THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN SHORE AND
ENTER DELAWARE BETWEEN 5 PM AND 6 PM. KENT AND QUEEN ANNES COUNTY
SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST PART OF THIS LINE IN MARYLAND AND
KENT AND SOUTHERN NEW CASTLE COUNTY WOULD DO THE SAME IN DELAWARE.
IF THE LINE CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF...IT WOULD THEN MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AFTER 6 PM.

THIS LINE IS ALSO PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AT THE RATE OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES PER HOUR.

ALL PERSONS ARE ADVISED TO SEEK SHELTER AT THE FIRST SIGN OF
THREATENING WEATHER AND IF POSSIBLE AVOID TRAVEL UNTIL THIS LINE
MOVES THROUGH. PERSONS OUTDOORS ARE ADVISED TO GET INTO A VEHICLE OR
BUILDING QUICKLY. SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THIS LINE.

TFG

DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ020>027-020000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
507 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2003

...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEARING DOWN ON THE LOWER
DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN EASTERN SHORE...KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTIES
DELAWARE AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM.

THIS LINE HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO TWO
INCHES PER HOUR AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS LINE HAVE PRODUCED WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 35
MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE AIR MASS OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE AND IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THIS LINE SHOULD NOT WEAKEN UNTIL IT NEARS THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED.

PERSONS TRAVELING TO THE SHORE ARE ADVISED TO BE WARY FOR CHANGING
ROAD CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

MOST LIGHTNING FATALITIES AND INJURIES OCCUR IN OPEN FIELDS OR UNDER
TREES. IF OUTDOORS...SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING OR CAR. DO NOT
TAKE SHELTER IN SMALL SHEDS...UNDER ISOLATED TREES...OR IN
CONVERTIBLE AUTOMOBILES.

TFG