Damaging Winds in Nevada, June 19, 2003

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
300 PM PDT THU JUN 19 2003

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...W/V IMAFERY SHOWS NEG TILT TROUGH AXIS NOW THROUGH WRN
NV. SFC/THERMAL TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST AND IS CURRENTLY FROM NR
TONOPAH NEWD TO JACKPOT. BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS NE NV W/ CONV
ALONG SFC TROUGH AND MODERATE CAPE PRESENT. STILL NOT MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE W/ PWS NR 1/2 AND DEWPTS IN THE 20S AND 30S...SO WILL GO
W/ SCT TS/ISOLD SHRA NE ZONES THIS EVE AND JUST ISOLD WORDING
ELSEWHERE. NRN STREAM S/WV...CURRENTLY APPROACHING OREGON COAST...
BRUSHES NV/ID BORDER OVERNIGHT AND KICKS ENTIRE TROUGH EWD FRI.
THIS COMBINED W/ 90KT UPR JET NOSING INTO WRN NV BY 12Z FRI SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME CONVECTION GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE FAR
NORTH AND WILL KEEP ISOLD POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG ID BORDER. ON
FRI...SFC/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS AND INSTABILITY SHIFT TO ERN 1/3 OF THE
STATE AS 5H TROUGH MOVES TO NV/UT BORDER BY 00Z SAT. WILL CONTINUE
WITH ISOLD THUNNDER THIS PERIOD AND DRY OUT WRN ZONES AS SFC HIGH
AND DRY NWLY FLOW BUILDS IN. STILL SOME CONCERN OVER STRENGTH OF
CONVECTION FRI IN FAR NE CWA WITH LFQ OF 100KT UPR JET IN THIS
REGION...BUT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED WOTH PWS BLO
1/2. H7 WINDS INCR TO 20KTS BEHIND THE S/WV WITH DECENT NW SFC
GRADIENT FOR BREEZY WORDING ALL ZONES FRI AND H7 TEMPS FALL 2-4C FOR
TEMPS COOLING BACK TO NEAR AVG.

SAT AND SUN...DRY WEST TO NW FLOW AS MEAN TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
WRN US. A FEW WEAK S/WVS PASS BY TO THE NORTH TO BRING OCNL CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLO AVG W/ 5H HTS IN
THE LOWER 570S.

.EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TO BRING
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD UPR LOW DOWN THE WEST COAST MONDAY AND ACROSS
THE GRT BASIN TUE...EXITING LATE WED. SYSTEM APPEARS VERY STRONG
WITH 553DM CLOSED 5H CORE 100KT UPR JET AND 7H TEMPS BLO ZERO AS IT
CROSSES NRN NV TUES. WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE JUMING
ON THIS COMPLETELY AND FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...COOLER TEMPS AND CHC POPS NORTH TO SCHC
SOUTH TUES AND SCHC POPS ALL ZONES WED AS SYTEM EXITS WITH COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING OVER NRN NV. DRY AND WARMER THURS AS HTS RISE
BEHIND THE UPR LOW AS ERN PAC RIDGING BUILDS BACK ONSHORE.

HOENISCH

NVZ030>037-201400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
500 AM PDT THU JUN 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SMITH