Flash Flood in Nevada, August 2, 2003

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION
222 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2003

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME
STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
ENTER NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER BACK TO THE GREAT
BASIN.

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD FLOW OF MOISTURE STILL
ACRS MUCH OF NRN AND ECNTRL NV WHILE SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO
INFILTRATE ACRS SRN NV. SEVERAL S/WV IMPULSES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTN AND EVENING. THE LF QUAD OF THE
UPPER JET WL MOVE THROUGH ECNTRL AND NORTHEAST NV THIS AFTN AND
EVENING WHICH COULD HELP CONVECTION BECOME SVR. FLY IN THE OINTMENT
ATTM IS THE CLOUD COVER. PWS OF GREATER THAN 1 ARE FCST OVER MUCH
OF CWA AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WELL AS NEGATIVE LIS. THETA-E
RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE ACRS NORTHEAST NV THIS AFTN/EVENING. WHILE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE A LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SOME STORMS MAY
CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED SOME HIGH AMOUNTS OF PCPN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WL HOLD
OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP BUT WL
BRIEF SWING CREW ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY MAY BE A SLOW START TO A DRYING TREND AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO TRY AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO SRN NV BUT AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL THAT
THIS MAY BE TOO FAST...AT LEAST FOR IT TO MOVE UP INTO THE NRN GREAT
BASIN. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND CONTINUED AFTN INSTABILITY ACRS
THE REGION...BEST CHANCES OF SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACRS
NRN NV BUT WL ALSO CARRY LOW CHC WORDING ACRS ECNTRL AS SOME VORT
FEATURES WL PASS THROUGH THE SILVER STATE. DYNAMICS ON SUNDAY NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS SATURDAY.

MONDAY BEGINNING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS THE GFS IS
TRYING TO HOLD ONTO MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE NRN NV BORDER BUT ALSO
HAS PROGGED A 60-70 KT UPPER JET FOR LATE AFTN AND EVENING ACRS WRN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NV. ATTM WL PROBABLY HAVE CHC WORDING ALONG NRN
ZONES WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS AND KEEP SCHC FOR
ECNTRL.

ON TUESDAY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WL
BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WL TAKE OUT SMALL POPS ALONG NRN
ZONES AS A RESULT.

.EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NEW MEXICO WHILE A LARGE PAC NW TROUGH HANGS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST
OF THE U.S. WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WEST OF WASHINGTON STATE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MCLEAR AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS
THE GREAT BASIN DRY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHT AND WILL INTRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACRS THE CWA FOR
THOSE DAYS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

.EKO...NONE.

SEDLOCK

NVZ030>037-031200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
545 AM PDT SAT AUG 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS CAN PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL NEVADA ON SUNDAY...DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FEHRN