Heavy Snow and High Wind in Nevada, April 13 to 15, 2003

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 PM PDT SUN APR 13 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK WITH STRONG WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING IN EASTERN
NEVADA. A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO ALL OF THE SILVER STATE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION.

.SHORT TERM...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS UPR LOW OFF CA COAST W/ NEXT S/WV TO
AFFECT NV SWINGING INTO CNTRL CA AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM ROTATING INTO
THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. STALLED AND WEAKENING SFC BNDRY
THROUGH HUMBOLDT CNTY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GET RE-ENERGIZED THIS
EVENING AS THE CNTRL CA S/WV ENTERS WRN NV...ALLOWING THE BNDRY TO
MOVE EWD TONIGHT. BEST DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE OVR N-CNTRL NV TONIGHT
UNDER LFQ OF 115 KT 3H JET W/ 7H CONV ALONG THE SLOW MOVING BNDRY.
SN-LVLS FALL TO NEAR VALLEY FLOORS IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND ADV
GOING THROUGH THIS EVE WITH WINDS LIKELY TO DIMINISH IN THE NORTH BY
MIDNIGHT W/ ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP.

MONDAY/MON NIGHT...ENTIRE TROUGH COMES ONSHORE MON AS FRONT GRADUALLY
MOVES THROUGH ERN ZONES TO THE UT BORDER W/ BACK SIDE S/WV ENTERING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. GFS/ETA COMING TOGETHER WITH A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR SE ZONES AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CWA MON NIGHT WITH A NEG TILT AND DEEPENING 7H LOW THROUGH WP CNTY.
DEFORMATION AND WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ALSO AS FAR NORTH AS EKO CNTY
FOR LIKELY POPS EAST MON NIGHT. WILL ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL
SNOW E-CNTRL NV AS GFS AND ETA PUT OUT .75 TO >1 QPF AMOUNTS IN ERN
WP CNTY W/ SN LVLS 6K-7K FT.

TUE AND WED...LINGERING MOISTURE EAST AS TROUGH EXITS TUE MORNING...
OTHERWISE GENERALLY FLAT FLOW BETWEEN TROUGHS. ENOUGH MOISTURE
WEAK S/WV ENERGY AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FOR CONTINUED CHC SHSN.
POSSIBLE BREAK TUES NIGHT AS FLOW TURNS SW AGAIN AHEAD OF NEXT
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. ON WED...MORE S/WV ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE
ACROSS NV AHEAD OF THE NEXT SPLIT TROUGH FOR CHC POPS.

.EXTENDED...MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH TROF ALONG WEST COAST ON
THURSDAY...HOWEVER DIFFER ON POSITION AND STRENGTH OF LOW CENTER.
WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS YET ALONE IN THE
EXTENDED...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST DAY 4 THROUGH DAY 6.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH BUILDING A RIDGE INTO CWA NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AS CWA STILL UNDER
MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW...THEN DRY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING MOISTURE.
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS TROF REMAINS OVER
CWA THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY DIRTY RIDGE ON SATURDAY. HARMER

.EKO...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING NVZ032-033-035-037.

NVZ030>037-141300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
628 AM PDT SUN APR 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA

.DAY ONE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEVADA TODAY. STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL NEVADA. THEREFORE...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
FOR FURTHER DETAILS REFER TO AWIPS ID RNONPWLKN OR WMO HEADER WWUS75
KLKN FOR MORE DETAILS. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN AND SNOW WILL
DEVELOP. HOWEVER...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A STRONG PACIFIC STORM...RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS WINDS...WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE AND BE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL NEVADA. SNOW AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN QUESTION...BUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY PERSONNEL ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURE.

WALLMANN

NVZ032>035-141030-

WINTER STORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
340 PM PDT SUN APR 13 2003

...A PACIFIC STORM TO IMPACT NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEVADA
MONDAY NIGHT...

A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS NEVADA
MONDAY REACHING EASTERN NEVADA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL NEVADA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BEGIN AROUND 6500 FEET MONDAY EVENING THEN LOWERING TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS BY TUESDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN.

ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN...
THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEVADA...
WITH UP TO ONE FOOT OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE UTAH BORDER. SNOW ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WILL BE LIGHTER...
WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO INCHES ACROSS MOST VALLEY FLOOR
LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL CROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA.

ANYONE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR TRAVEL MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/elko FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WEATHER
STATEMENTS.

HARMER