Tornado and Hail in Nebraska, May 3, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
244 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2003

...FORECAST CHALLENGE TO BE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

H5 PATTERN INDICATES A WEST COAST CLOSED LOW...BRITISH COLUMBIA
TROUGH...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CNTRL U.S. BELOW CANADIAN RIDGE. A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM SERN KS WESTWARD..THEN NORTH TO SWRN
KS...NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SERN WY IN FAVORABLE POSN FOR LATE
AFTERNOON TSRA TO TRACK ENE INTO SWRN PORTIONS OF CWFA THIS EVENING.
A FEW MAY BE SEVERE. DEVELOPMENT OF 40KT H85 JET AND H7 WAA SHOULD
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION FURTHER NORTHEAST AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON.

ON SATURDAY...LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE BEST CHANCE OF MORNING
TSRA TO ERN CWFA. NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE EXITING COLORADO IN AN
INCREASED SWRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LATE AFTERNOON TSRA IN THE
WEST. PRESENCE OF 45 KNOT 0-6KM SHEAR EAST OF AN OGA TO ONL LINE
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AFTER 3 PM. WILL RUN 40 POPS EAST
AND 30 POPS WEST. ALSO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM.
BEST CHCS SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OVER NORTH CENTRAL.

AS VORT MAX ROTATES AROUND H5 LOW...SHOWERS LIKELY N. T STILL
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTH WITH NEGATIVE LIS AND COLD AIR
ALOFT. HIGHS COOLER FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO NEAR 70 FAR SOUTH. BREEZY
NW WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW.

UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES HOLDING ONTO HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S MON/TUES. LOOKS DRY UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH FOUR CORNERS REGION.
ADDED CHC TSRA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED...AFTER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL GO DRY
TIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WHEN NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN. TEMPS
SHOULD RISE TO NEAR NORMAL WED/THUR.

.LBF...NONE.

KAR

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-022045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1142 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST TODAY INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM VALENTINE IN EASTERN
CHERRY COUNTY TO HAYES CENTER IN HAYES COUNTY. A WEAK WARM FRONT
ACROSS COLORADO WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY
THIS AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED BUT WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE.  THIS ALONG WITH A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING
OUT OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH ON THE HIGH
PLAINS EARLY WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO FORM OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND NIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEEPEN OVERNIGHT WITH MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST. LATER UPDATES WILL REFINE THE
PATH AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
VALENTINE IN CHERRY COUNTY TO HAYES CENTER IN HAYES COUNTY.

AWJ