Hail and Damaging Winds in Mississippi, May 3, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
855 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2003

HAVE UPDATED FOR A SECOND TIME TO REMOVE THE REST OF SEVERE WORDING
AND WW 210 FROM THE FORECAST. WHILE 00Z JAN RAOB WAS RATHER
UNSTABLE...VERY LIGHT DRYING WLY WINDS AND LACK OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PREVENTED MUCH DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE FRONT DROPPING THROUGH NRN MS EXTENDS ALONG A KTUP-KELD-KPRX
LINE AND SHOULD SETTLE INTO CENTRAL MS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO REFIRE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER SRN HALF OF CWFA
FOR MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR OUR AREA - STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
JAN EE 065/085 065/086 068 63233
MEI EE 063/084 062/086 068 63332

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
031200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
948 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...OTHERWISE...

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS REGION WILL
SETTLE INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MORE CONCENTRATED
STORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER 3
PM. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH 9 PM SATURDAY EVENING.

AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AND BECOME ONLY ISOLATED BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...
FOR SUNDAY...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY LIFT TO THE NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY RETURN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...ENHANCING THE LIFT AND ALLOWING FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN CONCENTRATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING IN
FROM THE WEST AND COULD TRIGGER AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. INCREASING WIND FIELDS AND
STEEP MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES WILL HELP SUPPORT STORM
DEVELOPMENT. AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT WOULD APPEAR THE HIGHEST
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY
HOWEVER...YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR MORE SPECIFIC
INFORMATION.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINS COULD DEVELOP
WITH A STALLED FRONT REMAINING NEAR THE REGION.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  UPPER LEVEL
JET SUPPORT WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO AGAIN
PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THIS STALLED FRONT WILL KEEP A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AGAIN POSSIBLY PRODUCING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THESE STORM SYSTEMS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATER FORECAST AND STATEMENTS
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT BUT MAY BE
NEEDED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ034-030130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
735 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...

AT 735 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR STILL SHOWED A CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN ASHLEY COUNTY...BETWEEN OLD MILO AND
PARKDALE.  THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND 15
MILES AN HOUR...AND WILL AFFECT THE NORTH CROSSETT...
HAMBURG...AND BERLIN AREAS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MILES AN HOUR...AND HAIL SMALLER THAN PENNIES.
DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT...PONDING OF WATER ON AREA
ROADWAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION
THROUGH 830 PM.

YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.  BE SURE TO STAY TUNED TO
YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR OTHER NEWS MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

BUTTS

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025-034>036-040>042-030200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
830 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES:

  QUITMAN         BOLIVAR       SUNFLOWER       LEFLORE
  WASHINGTON      HOLMES        HUMPHREYS       SHARKEY
  ISSAQUENA       YAZOO         ASHLEY          CHICOT

AND FOR THESE LOUISIANA PARISHES:

  EAST CARROLL    MOREHOUSE     RICHLAND        WEST CARROLL

AT 830 PM...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NO LONGER APPEAR LIKELY
FOR THESE COUNTIES AND PARISHES AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY WEAKENS.