Damaging Winds in Nebraska, June 27, 2003

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
250 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2003

CONVECTION TONIGHT AND THRU THE WEEKEND THE MAIN CONCERN

OVERALL PATTERN FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THRU FLOW.
LATEST H7 PROFILER DATA INDICATES ONE SUCH WAVE IN EASTERN
COLORADO...WITH STRONGER WAVE WHICH ENTERING MT/ND.

MODELS HAVE MISSED CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE NEB/KS
BORDER.  CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN WEAK CONVERGENT AREA ON NOSE OF
MOISTURE AXIS...AND AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE.  AFTER THIS INITIAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...TSTM DEVELOPMENT
WILL REFOCUS ALONG COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE DAKOTAS.  18Z SFC CHART SHOWS NIL IN THE WAY OF PRESSURE
RISES...HOWEVER FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVE AS
STRONGER WAVE CROSSES THE DAKOTAS.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS
FOR TSTMS FROM ROUGHLY 02Z-10Z.  AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH HAIL/WIND THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD SVR WX.

THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...THEN DRY WX
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.  BOUNDARY STALLS
TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY...THEN BEGINS TO LIFT SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGHS PLAINS...AIDED BY UPSLOPE
WINDS AND INCREASING LLVL JET.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE
AND MOVE EAST ACROSS CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  ONLY CHG TO
FORECAST IS TO REFINE TIMING TO AFTER MIDNIGHT.  TSTMS MAY LINGER
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN MODELS DIVERGE ON BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL WAVE BY LATE SUNDAY.  HAVE MAINTAINED POPS
WITH BEST CHCS ACROSS KS AND SOUTHERN NEB COUNTIES.

FORECAST DRIES MONDAY AND THRU THE EXTENDED WITH JET STREAM ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH.  MAX TEMPS SHLD
REACH 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

.GID...NONE.

FAY

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-281200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
542 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...MOST WIDESPREAD
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE STORMS HAVE FORMED IN RESPONSE
TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND THE FORMATION OF A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LATE AFTERNOON HEATING. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS EVENING IS MINIMAL...THANKS IN PART TO SOMEWHAT WEAK
WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...
SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 30 MPH.

LATER TONIGHT...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6. A STRONGER
DISTURBANCE SLIDE THROUGH REGION BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE...THUS SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 10 PM. AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH HAIL TO
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. THE
STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
ON SATURDAY AND TRACK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERATE SEVERE LEVELS OF HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS...MAINLY OVER AREAS WEST OF A KEARNEY TO CONCORDIA
LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
INDIVIDUAL OR COMMUNITY ORGANIZATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
CLOSELY...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF HAZARDOUS WEATHER
APPROACHES.

MORITZ