Damaging Wind in Nebraska, July 7, 2003

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
225 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2003

MAIN FOCUS IS ON TSTMS TONIGHT

VISIBLE SATELLITE AND LATEST SFC CHART INDICATE A COUPLE OF DISTINCT
BOUNDARIES ACROSS NEB...ONE LOCATED FROM MCK TO LXN...TO SOUTH OF
GRI...TO OMA.  ANOTHER BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH FM MHN TO ONL TO SUX.
MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY WITH DPS IN THE LOW
70S FM GRI TO OMA.  SHRA ACTIVITY HAS LINGERED THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LBF TO OFK LINE WITH WEAK WAVE CROSSING THRU
NORTHERN NEB/SOUTHERN SD.

LAPS DATA INDICATE HIGH INSTABILITY ALONG BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SFC BASED CAPES 3500-4500 J/KG WITH WEAKENING CIN.  18Z
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE DECENT CAP.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS...BUT EXPECT TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY...WITH LIFT
ENHANCED LATER TONIGHT WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE CURENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN WY/NORTHERN CO...AND INCREASING LLVL JET TO
40KTS TONIGHT.  LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY STAND BEST
CHCS FOR TSTMS.  SVR STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
HIGH INSTABILITY...AND LATEST SPC DY1 OUTLOOK HAS DOWNGRADED RISK
TONIGHT FROM MODERATE TO SLIGHT DUE TO NOT AS STRONG WIND/SHEAR
PROFILES.  PRIMARY HAZARD FM STORMS IS WIND/HAIL.

CONVECTION MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL MID
LEVEL TROF AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WITH CHCS
CONTINUING TUES NIGHT NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WITH CONVECTION
ACROSS SD/NORTHERN NEB AND PROGRESSING SE OVERNIGHT.  ON
WEDNESDAY...MODELS DIVERGE ON SFC BOUNDARY POSITION AND STRENGTH OF
MID LEVEL WAVES.  GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO CWA IN THE AFTN WHILE
ETA HAS BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH.  HAVE MENTIONED LOW POPS IN AFTN IN
NORTHERN CWA WITH EVEN ETA KAIN FRITSCH HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY.

REFINEMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED AS LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
TRENDING TOWARD RIDGE AXIS ORIENTATION ACROSS THE ROCKIES RATHER
THAN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PLACING OUR CWA IN NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND.  RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST ONTO PLAINS SUN/MON.
AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO WARM AND HAVE COOLED TEMPS
FRI/SAT...WITH WARMING TREND SUN/MON.  NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND
WEAKER CAP THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED MAY WARRANT TSTM CHCS AT SOME
POINT.  HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AND LATER SHIFTS CAN
REEVALUATE POTENTIAL FOR THIS.

.GID...NONE.

FAY

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-081200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1029 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS HAVE
A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING...AND THIS THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...AS RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS POOLED ALONG AN EAST TO
WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG INTERSTATE 80.

VERY STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 80 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
PENNIES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER TUESDAY MORNING ROUGHLY EAST OF
A LINE FROM ORD TO SMITH CENTER.  THE STALLED FRONT WILL AGAIN BE THE
FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. EMERGENCY MANAGERS
AND COUNTY SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION AS STORMS MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST.

GUYER