Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, July 5, 2003

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
224 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2003

TSTM POTENTIAL NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE MAIN CONCERN

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS YIELDED A FAIRLY
ZONAL YET ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS.  ALTHOUGH STRONGEST
ENERGY ACROSS CANADA...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CWA TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT TSTMS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  AT THE SFC AS OF 18Z...SFC LOW WAS LOCATED IN NE COLORADO
WITH WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA ROUGHLY ALONG
HWY 6.  SFC DPS GENERALLY 65-70F ACROSS THE CWA.  CONVECTION HAS
BEEN ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA ALL DAY...AND SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THRU EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID
LEVEL WAVE PROGRESSING EAST FM EASTERN WY/CO.  FOCUS WILL BE AHEAD
OF WARM FRONT AND ALSO ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  SVR POTENTIAL
EXISTS THRU EVENING IN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH CAPES AVERAGING 2300
J/KG AND LLVL FLOW ENHANCES WITH APPROACHING WAVE.  SPC DAY1
PLACES NORTHERN 1/3 OF CWA (ESSENTIALLY INTERSTATE 80 NORTH)
IN MODERATE RISK.  PRIMARY HAZARD IS WIND/HAIL...AND WE ALREADY HAD
ONE REPORT OF 50 MPH WIND GUST FROM A COLLAPSING STORM.

CONVECTION SHLD ORGANIZE AND SHIFT EAST OF CWA BY LATE EVENING AS
WAVE PROGRESSES INTO IOWA.  SUNDAY SHLD REMAIN DRY AND WARM DURING
THE DAY AHEAD OF NEXT DEVELOPING SFC TROF AS STRONG WAVE PROGRESSES
TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA.  SFC COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO
CWA AFT 00Z SUNDAY EVENING AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR
TSTMS.  WITH MAIN ENERGY REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON MONDAY.  WITH BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE CWA...INTERMITTENT CHCS FOR TSTMS CONTINUE THRU TUES
NIGHT.  BEST CHCS WILL REMAIN IN NEB COUNTIES IN VCNTY OF BOUNDARY
BUT RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL WARRANT AT LEAST SOME CHC FOR
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

HAVE MAINTAINED CONSISTENCY OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
WED THRU SAT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
LATEST GFS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER WITH BUILDING RIDGE AND LINGERS
PCPN INTO WED ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ACROSS SD.  THIS WILL BE
MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.  STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL CAP WITH H7
TEMPS REACHING AOA 16C SHLD INHIBIT CONVECTION REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED.

.GID...NONE.

FAY

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-061200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
335 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AND MOVE EAST INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH AND
LARGE HAIL. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE
KANSAS...NEBRASKA BORDER AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...IS THE
FOCUS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO BE
GENERALLY NORTH OF A PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS TO HEBRON NEBRASKA LINE.
WITHIN THAT AREA...THE REGION ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 STANDS
THE BEST SHOT FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AT THIS TIME...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE
LIMITED. THE BEST SHOT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 IN PARTICULAR. ALSO ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM 95 TO 105 DEGREES. IF YOU PLAN STRENUOUS OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES...USE COMMON SENSE AND DO NOT OVERWORK YOURSELF.

LINGERING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY BEFORE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SQUELCHES THE RISK FOR STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE KANSAS NEBRASKA STATE LINE.

KISNER