Hail in Montana, June 10, 2003

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
240 PM MDT TUE JUN 10 2003

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
MORNING SHORTWAVE STILL PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON.
PERSISTENT BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS GOING EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THIS.
ALSO SOME CELLS HAVE DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
WAVE. FEEL PRUDENT TO KEEP MENTION OF CONVECTION IN FOR THIS. MAIN
ACTION SHOULD BE STARTING IN THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON. UPPER
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA IN AN AREA OF STRONG CONVERGENCE. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING.
INSTABILITY THE GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH LIS APPROACHING -4 AND CAPES NEARING 1000 JKG. BATCH OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BUTTE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WEST AND PROPAGATE EAST
WITH TIME. HODOGRAPHS SHOWING STRAIGHT LINE SIGNATURE...SO EXPECT
MULTICELL STORMS WITH A TENDENCY TO SPLIT. WOULD EXPECT CAPES TO
CONTINUE TO RISE WITH MORE SUNSHINE. WILL MENTION THE CHANCE OF SEVERE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES. WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AS SHOWERS HAVE KEPT IT STABLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROLL EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS Q FORCING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH DOES NOT CLEAR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL AROUND 18Z. TROUGH
AXIS MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL CLEAR THINGS OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW TO ACCOUNT FOR A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MESO RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK ENERGY RIDES UP THE
RIDGE INTO THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE DOES BECOME UNSTABLE
AGAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL LEAVE POPS OUT AS ATMOSPHERE
DRY. SHOULD BE WARMER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WILL LOOSE THE LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. HUMPHREY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
EXTENDED MODELS HINTING AT A SW DIFFLUENT FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF MONTANA FOR FRIDAY...YET MOST OF THE ENERGY SEEMS
TO BE SLIDING TO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE WHICH WOULD EQUAL
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS. 500MB HEIGHTS HOLD
STEADY AT 576DM AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND RESULTING TROUGH DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST. MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING LOW BUT SIMILAR
WITH PLACEMENT. DIFFLUENT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST AS LOW BEGINS TO PUSH INLAND
AND 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY. LOW
ULTIMATELY WEAKENS AND SLIDES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES RAISING 500MB HEIGHTS ON
SUNDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO START A WARMING TREND. ANOTHER TROUGH TRIES
TO DEVELOP BY 12Z MONDAY ALONG THE COAST LINE KEEPING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE. ALL MODELS TO THIS POINT VERY SIMILAR AND ONLY DIFFER ON
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SYSTEMS THAT MOVE INTO THE REGION. SEE NO REASON TO
FAVOR ONE OVER THE OTHER AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST
PACKAGE IDEA OF PERSISTENCE BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME. OVERALL A
SUMMER/SHOWERY TYPE EXTENDED BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND. SPRINGER

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050/077 051/080 053/085 056/081 054/081 052/082 052/078
    62/T    00/B    00/U    00/B    33/T    33/T    33/T
LVM 045/077 046/078 048/083 051/079 049/078 047/079 047/074
    60/B    00/B    01/U    10/E    33/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 050/078 051/082 053/087 056/083 054/081 052/082 052/079
    62/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    33/T    33/T    33/T
MLS 050/074 051/081 053/089 056/083 054/082 052/081 052/080
    44/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    33/T    33/T    33/T
4BQ 050/074 051/082 053/086 056/083 054/082 052/082 052/078
    43/T    00/U    01/B    10/B    33/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 048/072 049/078 051/086 054/082 052/082 050/080 050/080
    44/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    33/T    33/T    33/T
SHR 048/076 049/079 051/083 054/079 052/081 050/082 050/081
    40/B    00/U    01/B    10/B    33/T    33/T    33/T

.BYZ...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

MTZ028>042-056>058-WYZ098-099-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
506 AM MDT TUE JUN 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL...SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.