Lightning Strike in Montana, July 24, 2003

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT...COR FOR TYPO
300 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2003

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGE STILL THE STORY OVER MONTANA WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AGAIN
TODAY. UPPER TROF OVER BC EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CANADA
THROUGH SATURDAY FLATTENING RIDGE SLIGHTLY. THIS SHOULD KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK FROM NEAR RECORD TO ONLY ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN MONTANA BUT THIS MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUD.
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING OVER CENTRAL IDAHO SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONTANA OVERNIGHT. ALREADY A LITTLE CONVECTION APPEARING
OVER SOUTHWEST ZONES BUT NO LIGHTNING YET. WEAK FRONTS LINGERING
ACROSS THE STATE TO FOCUS CONVECTION. THIS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY.
EBERT

...FIRE WEATHER SUPPLEMENT...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS ALL BUT
NORTHEAST CORNER OF CWA TODAY. EXPECT POOR RECOVERIES TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH WILL SEE SOME RISING OF DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT WITH WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. BEST RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
NORTHEAST. ADDED TO THE MIX IS POSSIBLITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY SO EXPECT HIGH BASED STORMS
WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THIS EVENING AND EXTEND IT INTO TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GREAT SHAPE. A HOT AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WITH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINING AT BAY. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GO
THROUGH SOME SUBTLE CHANGES THIS WEEKEND...BUT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK IT WILL LOOK MUCH THE SAME AS IT DOES TODAY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT
AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE EAST THE
WESTERN RIDGE SHIFTS WEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BRINGING TEMPORARY
NORTHWEST FLOW TO EASTERN MONTANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE GULF OF AK
LOW BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE
WESTERN HIGH MOVES BACK EAST TO THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY COOL IN NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN ABOVE LONG TERM
AVERAGES FOR LATE JULY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN AROUND THE
MID WEEK HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL AGAIN SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
THAT MAY TOP 100F. CB

KGGW EBB 068/093 065/091 063/092 92222000
     BUUB 060/094 061/089 062/094 063/093 9000000000
KGDV EBB 068/093 067/092 065/095 92222000
     BUUB 063/098 063/093 064/099 065/098 9000000000

.GGW...RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 119...121...AND 122
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MTZ016>027-059>062-251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
253 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2003

.DAY ONE...
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 119...121...AND 122 FOR VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES...VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...GUSTY SURFACE
WIND...AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.  IN ADDITION DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO GTFRFWGGW OR WWUS85 KGGW FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TOMORROW FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
119...121...AND 122 FOR A COMBINATION OF VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS. PLEASE REFER TO
GTFRFWGGW OR WWUS85 KGGW FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

BOGEL