Hail in Montana, August 9, 2003

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
320 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2003

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. STRONGEST STORMS FROM OVERNIGHT HAVE MOVED INTO NORTH
DAKOTA BUT STILL GETTING REDEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN ZONES. ALSO
REMNANTS OF STORMS FROM CENTRAL MONTANA MOVING INTO WESTERN ZONES.
NOT CERTAIN HOW LONG THESE STORMS WILL PERSIST...PARTICULARLY THE
EASTERN STORMS BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP SOME POPS FOR THOSE ZONES
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY A LITTLE COOLER TODAY
WITH EASTERLY FLOW AROUND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND FLATTENING OF
UPPER RIDGE.

ONCE THE MORNING CONVECTION CLEARS OUT...FOCUS SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE ALTHOUGH PATTERN BECOMING SLIGHTLY
LESS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MONTANA. RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOWING SIGNS OF
BEING CUT OFF. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATING WEAK CAP AROUND
700MB FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT VERY HIGH LIMITING LARGE HAIL THREAT.
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS STILL NOT OVERLY STRONG SO EXPECT VERY ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS AT MOST.

TROF IN THE EAST PACIFIC SHIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUILDING RIDGE OVER MONTANA. THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOW FOR
DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH THERMAL
RIDGE SHIFTING INTO EASTERN MONTANA BY MONDAY. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...
LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WITH STRONG UPPER HIGH TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS INDICATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MOST MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT TO REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF THE CWFA. HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS FOR NORTH AND
WEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS MOISTURE VALUES REMAIN QUITE HIGH
AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. SURFACE TROUGH INDICATED TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THURSDAY WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER BUT
CONTINUED WARM WEATHER INDICATED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. LYNN

KGGW BBB /091 062/094 062/097 9002000
     BTBB 062/092 061/089 059/088 057/087 059/ 77003300000
KGDV BBB /093 063/096 063/097 9022000
     BBBB 063/092 062/092 062/089 057/088 059/ 77000000000

.KGGW...NONE.

MTZ016>027-059>062-101200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
606 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA

.DAY ONE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.