Wildfire in Montana, August 27 to 30, 2003

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
825 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2003

.SHORT TERM...UPDATE PLANNED.
UPDATED FWF EARLIER TO EXPIRE RED FLAG WARNING. SHORTWAVE OVER
EASTERN MONTANA WITH SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SECONDARY LOW OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN WITH TROF IN BETWEEN THE
LOWS. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE TROF BUT CURRENTLY
AFFECTING MAINLY THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. REMAINDER OF
THE CWA HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SECOND FRONT EXTENDING WEST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN LOW TO NORTHERN IDAHO. CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN ALBERTA BEHIND THIS FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT MAINLY IN NORTHERN ZONES AS THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD BUT SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER. TIGHT GRADIENT NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA LOW HAS KEPT THE WINDS
MODERATE AND GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
MIDNIGHT. UPDATE ON THE WAY. EBERT

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
SAYING GOODBYE TO SURFACE LOW (PRESENTLY CENTERED AT THE JUNCTION OF
SD/ND/MT)...BUT WE CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
NE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSING NICELY NE INTO CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN THE MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD SOUTH OF FT PECK LAKE...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING
THEM TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE DRY LOW LEVELS. DRY SLOT MOVING NORTH
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MT (SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR) SHOULD ONLY ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE ND THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT THANKS TO THE COOL AIRMASS THAT ARRIVED THIS
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LOW MOVING EAST THROUGH S BC SHOULD PRESS INTO NE MT
TOMORROW. AN AREA OF MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTH INTO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER NE MT AT
THE SAME TIME FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT AND
FINALLY EXITS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME VERY
COOL (TEMPERATURE-WISE) SHOWERS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

BIGGEST NOTICABLE CHANGE THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COOLER WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. JAMBA

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
STILL HAVING MODEL DATA PROBLEMS TODAY WITH THE MISSING GFS RUN.
NOGAPS ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE PROBLEMS TODAY. RELIED ON ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS FOR FORECAST TODAY. TROUGHINESS FROM FRIDAY SYSTEM
OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE.
MODELS SINGING A LITTLE DIFFERENT TUNE TODAY IN DEVELOPING BROAD
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO KEEP ANY
MAJOR RIDGING AT BAY WITH COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING ALOFT.
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL BY MONDAY. ECMWF INDICATING
INTERESTING SOLUTION BY EJECTING A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM STRONG GULF
OF ALASKA LOW INTO CANADIAN PROVINCES. SYSTEM STAYS JUST NORTH OF
MONTANA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE THANKS
TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
OTHER MODELS TREND IN THIS DIRECTION TOO. AS FOR IMPLICATIONS ON THE
FORECAST...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
70S WARMING TO NEAR 80 BY EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS GOOD. DRY FORECAST
ALSO HOLDS FOR NOW. STROOZAS

KGGW EEB 052/076 047/071 046/074 76023000
     BBBE 047/077 050/078 051/078 053/079 9600000000
KGDV BEB 053/080 048/070 047/073 76023200
     BBBB 048/078 050/079 051/079 054/080 9600000000

.GGW...NONE

MTZ016>027-059>062-281200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
600 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA

.DAY ONE...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 119 THROUGH
122 FOR POSSIBLE DRY THUNDERSTORMS...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A
WIND SHIFT FOLLOWED BY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...AND EXTREME FIRE
DANGER. REFER TO GTFRFWGGW OR WWUS85 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VALONE