Damaging Winds and Lightning Strike in Indiana, August 27, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
215 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2003

.SHORT RANGE (DAYS 0-3)...
TS BEING LIMITED BY STG CAP THAT REMAINS OVER THE LMK FA, PER
MORNING KSDF ACARS RAOBS. ASSOC WITH SUBTLE 500MB WAVES MEANDERING
AROUND THE VICINITY, ISO TSRA ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR SRN KY,
WHILE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION EXISTS NEAR E-W ORIENTED SFC TROF
OVER IN/OH. WITH VERY HIGH SFC-BASED INSTABILITY, ADDTL SCT TS MAY
DEVELOP THRU THIS EVE WITHIN MOIST PLUME OVER SRN IND, COINCIDENT
WITH AREA OF HIGHER 850-500MB L/RS AND WEAKER CAPPING. STORMS OVER
TN MAY ALSO MIGRATE INTO FAR SRN KY. HIGH FREEZING LEVELS SUGGEST
GOOD PCPN EFFICIENCY. INTO THU, SFC LOW OVER NRN PLAINS ACTS TO INCR
SWLY FLOW OVER FA THUS MVG SFC BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY NWD INTO CEN IN/OH.
MEANWHILE, WEAKNESS WITHIN 500MB HEIGHT FIELD NOW OVER ARK, LOOKS TO
PUSH EWD TWDS THE FA. OVERALL, GIVEN THAT ATMOSPHERE IS FCST TO LOSE
MOST OF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION, THINK THERE POTL FOR AT
LEAST SOME ISO TSRA THU AFT/EVE. SFC LOW SCOOTS EWD INTO QUEBEC ON
FRI, WITH ASSOC TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING WAY TWDS FA. ETA
FCSTING A STREAM OF 500MB WAVELETS PROPAGATING PARALLEL TO FRONT
OVER CEN IL/IN, SO INGREDIENTS FOR PCPN ARE AT LEAST IN THE AREA.
GIVEN FCST THICKNESS PTTNS, THINK HIGHEST CHCS FOR PCPN LOOK TO BE
OVER WRN PARTS OF FA. INTO FRI NIGHT AND SAT, DIFFS WITH ETA/GFS
SOLNS. LEANING TWDS SLOWER ETA SOLN WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL MVNT,
BUT EITHER WAY LOOKING AT A SOMEWHAT WET 24HR PERIOD, PERHAPS A
WARM-FRONTAL TYPE OVERRUNNING PCPN WITH ELEVATED THUNDER. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD ALSO TEMPS ON SAT BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. XXV

.EXTENDED SECTION (DAYS 4-7)...
DUE TO COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS WITH NCEP LAST EVENING...WE HAVE A
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MODEL DATA TO WORK WITH FOR THE EXTENDED PACKAGE.
HOWEVER...OTHER MODELS THAT DID GET IN LAST NIGHT ARE STILL IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST.  SFC COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY,
WITH SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES RIDING ALONG IT.  HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS
IN FOR THOSE PERIODS.  WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO BE WELL TO OUR EAST ON
MONDAY, HAVE GONE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. JARVIS

.LMK...NONE.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-281000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
345 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AS A WEAK
FRONT DROPS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN, PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING, AND STRONG WIND GUSTS, ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY, A WARM CAPPING LAYER
ALOFT MAY KEEP STORMS MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

ALSO, WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MIDDLE 70S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S, HEAT INDICES MAY REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 103 RANGE THROUGH
ABOUT 6 PM LOCAL TIME, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS. PEOPLE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAT STRESS SHOULD TRY TO REMAIN IN AN AIR
CONDITIONED LOCATION. REMEMBER IF WORKING OUTDOORS TODAY TO DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SCATTERED HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SMALLCOMB