Hail in Montana, August 13, 2003

WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
239 PM MDT WED AUG 13 2003

.SHORT TERM...A REAL GROUP EFFORT TODAY WITH LOTS OF DISCUSSION ON
QUITE DIFFERENT MODEL GUIDANCE.  MESOETA MODEL BRINGS FRONT IN MUCH
TOO EARLY AND HAS BEEN BY CONSENSUS ELIMINATED FROM CONSIDERATION.
FAVORED SOLUTION IS GFS...WHICH HAS MUCH SLOWER TREND FOR PACIFIC
TROF PULLING EASTWARD. THIS TREND HAS BEEN WITH US ON NEARLY
EVERY SINGLE MODEL RUN OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS.  BASED ON THIS
GUIDANCE.  RIDGE BUILDS THURSDAY FOR WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
ON FRIDAY...AS TROF AND FRONT APPROACHES...WILL INITIALLY HAVE
EASTERLY WINDS IN NORTHWEST MONTANA AND CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT. THESE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT WESTERLY AND GUST AS FRONT
PASSES...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHWEST MONTANA. IN ADDITION...BEFORE
THE FRONT PASSES...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD FROM WYOMING UP
THROUGH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ADD UP TO
FAIRLY GOOD CONVECTION SETTING UP ON FRIDAY...OVER NEARLY ALL THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODELS HAVE
KEPT PRECIPITATION WORDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS: INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA TODAY AND TOMORROW.  TOMORROWS
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL LEAD TO HIGH HAINES INDEX...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. WINDS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN ON FRIDAY. MWJ

.LONG TERM...TIMING OF UPPER TROF/SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL UP IN
THE AIR. MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF WITH
EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. WITH THAT SAID...HAS MADE SOME MINOR
MODIFICATIONS TO FIRST PERIODS OF EXTENDED FORECAST. LOOKS AS THOUGH
HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL POST TROF PASSAGE. SURFACE THERMAL
TROF REDEVELOPS AND WILL BECOME A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA ZONES. THE ADDITION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LAST TWO DAYS OF
EXTENDED WAS ONLY CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

.MSO...NONE.

...7-DAY SPOT TEMPS AND POPS...
LIB BBB 049/099 051/098 051/091 41101221
     UUUU 055/086 050/088 053/090 051/084 2710000000
FCA BBB 045/095 047/096 047/090 41111221
     UUUU 052/084 049/085 049/083 051/082 2710000000
POL BBB 059/089 061/090 059/087 41111221
     UUUU 058/086 052/088 053/087 053/085 2710000000
MSO BBB 058/092 060/093 058/088 41211221
     UUUU 053/088 052/089 054/087 054/086 2700000000
HMM BBB 056/096 058/097 056/089 41222220
     UUUB 053/088 052/090 053/084 054/086 2700000011
BTM BBB 049/094 051/095 051/087 41222220
     UUUB 049/083 047/084 049/086 050/081 2700000011
ORO BBB 062/095 064/096 062/089 41100220
     UUUU 059/090 055/093 059/094 055/088 2700000011
GRV BBB 054/092 056/093 054/084 41111220
     UUUU 051/086 048/088 052/089 049/084 2700000011
SMN BBB 057/096 059/097 059/090 41222221
     UUBB 053/087 051/089 052/087 053/085 2700000011

MTZ001>007-043-IDZ005>010-141200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
600 AM MDT WED AUG 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO

.DAY ONE... TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY WINDS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
0307 PM MDT WED AUG 13 2003

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0730 PM    4 W DEER LODGE            MT   0.75 IN HAIL
08/12/03   POWELL

SMD