Flooding in Missouri, June 12 to 13, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
740 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MO THIS EVENING.. THESE STORMS ARE
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES PER
HOURS. MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG SURFACE COLD
FRONT OVER EASTERN KS. ADDITIONALLY...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MO IS MOVING THROUGH KC METRO
AREA...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. STORMS DEVELOPING NORTH
OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE NEARLY STATIONARY...RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF METRO AREA. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
NEAR TOPEKA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST...AND AS IT DOES SO
SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE THREAT CONTINUE ACROSS CWA. HAVE UPDATED
ZONES/GRIDS TO BUMP POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL...AND ADDED HEAVY
RAIN WORDING TO REMAINDER OF CWA.

SEAMAN

315 PM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE PREDOMINANTLY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF CONUS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN LARGER SCALE FLOW. MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN ACROSS
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY IS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
EVIDENT OVER EASTERN KS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ANALYZED AT 19Z FROM NEAR ST JOSEPH TO JEFFERSON CITY. AFTERNOON
HEATING COMBINED WITH MID TO UPPER 60 DEW POINTS POOLED ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR AREA OF
INSTABILITY JUST NORTH OF BOUNDARY...WITH LIS TO NEAR -7 ANALYZED
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MO. BAND OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS FIRED ALONG
BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
INTO INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO. ADDITIONAL
AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS UNDER
UPPER CIRCULATION. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR PROFILES...CONVECTIVE MODE WILL
REMAIN PULSE/MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS EVENING. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS REMAINDER OF CWA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER COLD POOL.

MODELS SUGGEST UPPER CIRCULATION TO SLOWLY PASS ACROSS REGION
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HAVE RETAINED POPS FOR MORNING HOURS ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...OTHERWISE REMOVED
CHANCE POPS ACROSS WEST AS DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO CWA.
NEW MODEL RUNS ARE MUCH DRIER THROUGH UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS
WESTERLIES RETREAT INTO CANADA ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE ACROSS
REGION. SURFACE RIDGE PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS GREAT LAKES BACK INTO
MID MO RIVER VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS CWA. THIS WILL PUSH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RUNNING JUST A BIT ABOVE
MAV/FWC GUIDANCE.

SEAMAN

230 PM...
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK IS A TOUGH FORECAST.  FOR
NOW I HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY, BUT THIS IS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ADVERTISE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.  THE GFS BURIES THIS
FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES, THE ECMWF KEEPS IT IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI, AND THE CANADIAN MODEL FORECASTS
IT TO DRIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE
WESTERLIES OVER SOUTHERN CANADA, MESOSCALE NUANCES WILL HAVE A BIG
BEARING ON HOW THIS UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES AND MOVES.  IF IT STALLS
OVER EASTERN KANSAS OR MISSOURI, AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY, BUT FOR NOW I BELIEVE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TO OUR
EAST OR SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH A
GENERAL EAST OR NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER RIDGE.  GFS GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE.

KOCH

333 AM...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO CENTER
AROUND THE OUR CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE GENERAL PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS REMAINS THAT OF WISHY WASHY
FAST ZONAL FLOW WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE FEATURES.  IN
OTHER WORDS VERY CONFUSED. GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO DISPLAY PROBLEMS
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...WHICH COMPLETELY MESSES UP THE MASS
FIELDS. ETA HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE FORMATION OF SOME KIND OF
UPPER LEVEL LOW OR VORTICITY SHEAR ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR A FEW MODEL RUNS. THIS IS AT LEAST A
FEATURE I CAN HANG A HAT ON. SO WHILE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
SHAKY...I WILL GO WITH A ETA INFLUENCED FORECAST.

FOR THIS MORNING I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. RUC DOES NOT THINK THE STORMS WILL HOLD
TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH OUR AREA...AND WITH THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WINDS AND INSTABILITY PREVAILING OVER THE NORTH HALF OF
MISSOURI THIS MIGHT BE ACCURATE.  BUT...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
CONVECTION AND ANTICIPATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES I FELT IT PRUDENT TO
INCLUDE A LINGERING CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
CWA.

CONTINUED OUR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING CONFIDENCE IS
PARTICULARLY SHAKY. SURFACE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION COULD CONSPIRE WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO POP OFF
PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...LESS
THAT STELLAR LAPSE RATES DO NOT INSPIRE ME. SO...I CONTINUED WITH
THE STATUS QUO FOR TODAYS CONVECTIVE CHANCES. AS STATED EARLY THE
BEST FEATURE TO HANG ONES HAT ON IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND
LINGER INTO SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES AS
THE WEEKEND GOES ON. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE THERE.

CUTTER

240 PM...
FOCUS REMAINS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEBRASKA
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ESCAPE MORNING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT WILL
INCLUDE POPS GENERALLY WEST OF A GRANT CITY TO MOUND CITY KANSAS
LINE. AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND DROPS SOUTHWARD
SLIGHTLY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES
ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE REGION INTO SATURDAY WITHIN THE WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW REGIME. EXPECT SPORADIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDE LOW POPS THROUGH THEN. HAVE NOT VEERED MUCH
FROM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE
CURRENT PATTERN SHOULD YIELD READINGS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

LS

.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-131100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...MAINLY IN
AREAS EAST OF A BETHANY TO ST JOSEPH LINE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX
OR HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

SEAMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
407 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0325 PM    4 N HARDIN                MO   TORNADO
06/12/03   RAY                            REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER. BRIEF
                                          TOUCHDOWN. TELEPHONE
                                          POLES/TREES DOWN.
MJ