Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in Mississippi, June 14, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING...TWEAKED TEMPS AND UPPED
POPS IN THE NORTHEAST.

AREA RADARS INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
INCREASE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. POPS LOOKED GOOD IN MOST
AREAS...HOWEVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS HAD
OFF AND ON SHRA/TSRA MOST OF THE MORNING...AND ANY LINGERING
BOUNDARIES OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING COULD SPARK ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY.
UPPED POPS IN THIS AREA SLIGHTLY.

ONLY OTHER BEYOND TWEAKING UPDATE WAS TO RAISE THE MAX TEMPS IN THE
SOUTH TO THE UPPER 80S. MORE PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THIS AREA...AND
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RAISED INTO THE LOWER 80S. WILL BUMP TEMPS UP
FROM THE MID 80S TO UPPER 80S...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM REACHING ABOVE 89.

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

32/LISTEMAA

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
151838-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
138 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BUT THESE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IN
NATURE AND MOST STORMS WILL STAY WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY HUMID ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES
CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

...FLOODING...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MANLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 55.

A HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WITHIN A SHORT
AMOUNT OF TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF
MISSISSIPPI. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES
AN HOUR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR AND MAY
PRODUCE PONDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. DISTURBANCES IN UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY TO ENHANCE
THE CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS NEAR
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON
ANY ONE OF THE DAYS AS A TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT THE
PRODUCTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
HOWEVER...NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.