Hail and Damaging Wind in Minnesota, July 29, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
355 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003

MAIN TOPIC OF CONVERSATION CONCERNS CONVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
JUST ENTERING EXTREME NW MN. AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
SD LINKING UP WELL WITH VERY STRONG DIVERGENCE COUPLET PER 250MB ETA
HTS. BEST 1000-850 THETA E ADVECTION PARTIALLY OVER THIS REGION AND
EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. BY 06Z EAST MOVING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT COUPLET DECREASES BY 40 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF MN CWA.
THETA E ADVECTION ALSO ON THE DECLINE. LIS OF -4 ALSO PEGGED ACROSS
NORTHWEST CWA AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN AROUND 00Z-03Z. THUS BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF LINE...FROM GLENCOE TO MORA...AND
NORTH OF LINE FROM CANBY TO GLENCOE. WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM SURFACE TO 850MB AHEAD OF CONVECTION SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
IN FORM OF HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND GUSTS. PWATS ON ETA AND AVN HAVE
DROPPED APPRECIABLY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO EXCEPT ACROSS FAR
WESTERN CWA. SOME TRAINING EXPECTED THIS REGION SO CHANCE OF SOME
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

PRACTICALLY STACKED 50H AND SURFACE LOW SYSTEM WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER
NORTHERN MN LATE TNT AND INTO THU. COLD FRONT WILL PUNCH THRU MN CWA
BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WESTERN WI BY 31/04Z. 50H LOW FINALLY
EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN WI BY LATE FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY INSTABILITY
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN AND EVEN
THU-FRI WITH HUGE AREA OF -14 TO -16 50H TEMP ACROSS MUCH OF AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY THIS TIME FRAME.

WITH EXIT OF CLOSED UPPER LOW STRONG 50H RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS BY MONDAY WITH DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER CWA INTO MIDWEEK.
LOOKS LIKE RIDGE COULD BRING TEMPERATURES EASILY BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS CWA BY THU.

.MSP...NONE.

AZ

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-301000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
500 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA BY
THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER
WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPPER LOW TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WILL MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS
WELL AS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE MAIN THREAT LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAYBE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT OVER WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA.